If you’re thinking about buying in 2026, you’re probably hearing two opposite stories.
On one side:
“Prices are going to drop further. Just wait.”
On the other side:
“If you don’t buy soon, you’ll be priced out when rates fall again.”
So you’re stuck in the middle asking a simple question:
“Is this actually a good time to buy… or should I stay put?”
I’m not here to convince you to buy or to wait. I’m here to walk you through the facts and a clear way of looking at them, so you can decide whether buying in 2026 makes sense to you.
How this article is structured
This is a long article on purpose. Buying a home isn’t a two-sentence decision. I’ve broken it into clear sections so you can either read it straight through, or jump to the part that’s most urgent for you right now – renewal, rent versus buy, selling and buying in the same market, or simply understanding where prices and rates actually are.
Headlines vs reality
What TRREB’s actual 2025 numbers say about a “slow” market, and why 62,000+ sales still means over 124,000 households moved.What the big forecasts are saying about 2026
Royal LePage’s outlook for Canada and the GTA, and why I treat it as background, not marching orders — plus why the “funeral for real estate” story needs to end.CMHC’s housing shortage math, immigration targets, builders slowing down, and what that means for prices and rents over the next decade.
Interest rates and what you actually pay each month
Where rates are now, why “rate + price” matters more than headlines, and the simple $1M @ 2% vs $800K @ 4% example most people never run.“Renewal wave” — what this 60% actually means
What’s really happening to people renewing after 5 cheap years, why it’s not a cliff for everyone, and why starting early with your lender matters.A quick rent vs buy lens
How to compare your rent to realistic ownership costs at today’s numbers, and when renting is actually the smarter move.Selling and buying in the same market
Why the gap between what you sell for and what you buy for matters more than the headline price of either.Time horizon
When buying in 2026 can make sense vs when you should probably wait, based on how long you’ll stay put and how much volatility you can stomach.What you pay vs what it costs to build
Replacement cost, insurance numbers, and why “I’ll just wait until it’s 30% cheaper” doesn’t line up with how construction actually works.Condos vs ground homes
Different stories inside the averages: what’s been happening to condos vs freeholds, and what to watch for in each.Where this view is coming from
Who I am, who I’m talking to, and the sources I lean on when I analyze this market.
So… is it a good time to buy in 2026?
For some people yes, for others not yet, doing nothing is still a decision.
I’m here to give you my professional, educated view of this market – based on lived experience and ongoing conversations with lenders, builders, lawyers, and other industry leaders – and to lay out a clear, realistic picture so you can decide what makes sense for your life right now.
1. Headlines vs reality: “slow market” doesn’t mean “no market”
You’ve probably heard that the GTA market is “slow” or “stalled.”
Let’s look at what actually happened.
When you see numbers from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), you’re not just looking at the City of Toronto. TRREB covers the City, the 905 around it (Peel, York, Durham, Halton), and nearby communities like Dufferin and Simcoe. In other words, it’s a much bigger region than “Toronto proper.”
For 2025, TRREB reported roughly:
62,433 home sales through its MLS® System – about 11% fewer than in 2024.
186,753 new listings – roughly 10% more than the year before.
An annual average selling price of about $1,067,968 – about 4.7% lower than in 2024.
That’s what a “slow” year looks like: 62,433 properties still changed hands.
Every one of those sales had a buyer and a seller. That’s more than 124,000 households deciding to move in a so‑called “stalled” market.
At the same time, it has been a hard landscape for first-time buyers for years. Prices are high, qualifying is strict, and a lot of people feel locked out.
And yet there’s another group in this same city:
parents helping kids with down payments
families pooling resources
people with strong incomes, bonuses, or inherited equity
Toronto still has plenty of households with access to real money. That’s part of why, even when the headlines sound gloomy, you still see tens of thousands of people buying and selling in a “slow” year.
Both realities are true:
For some people, it can feel impossible.
Meanwhile, properties are still being bought and sold every single day.
The work isn’t to stare at the averages. It’s to figure out which group you’re actually in and what’s realistic for you.
2. What the big forecasts are actually saying about 2026
Along with TRREB, CMHC and major lenders, I also use Royal LePage’s national forecasts. Yes, that’s my brokerage, their reports are public, data-based, and used by banks, media and analysts across the country.
In plain language, their latest forecast says:
Across Canada, typical home prices in Q4 2026 are expected to be about 1% higher than in Q4 2025.
In the GTA, prices are expected to be about 4.5% lower over the same period.
So at the national level, they’re calling for things to be basically flat. In the GTA, they’re calling for a small further decline over 2026.
Two things you need to know about that kind of forecast:
It’s a regional average. It blends condos, towns, semis, and detached homes across dozens of micro-markets. Some streets will hold. Some buildings will soften.
It is not a guarantee. It’s an educated weather report based on the data they have today, not a promise about your address.
I treat this as background, not marching orders. It tells me to expect a slower, negotiated market where prices can still slide a bit more before they find their footing this year. That’s it. It doesn’t tell me how you should live your life.
Stop holding a funeral for real estate.
I’m done attending the funeral of this industry.
For the last few years the chorus has been:
“Real estate is dead.”
“It’ll never come back.”
Good. It shouldn’t “come back” to what it was.
The COVID spike — free money, 20% annual price jumps, blind bidding hysteria — was a fever, not normal. Everyone got high on cheap debt and FOMO and then called it “the market.”
This — what we have now — is what a healthy market actually looks like:
normal listing times
conditions on offers
buyers who can think for more than an hour
prices that are negotiated, not hallucinated
Is it as “fun” as 15-offer nights? No.
Is it more sane and sustainable? Absolutely.
Yes, the world is unstable.
No, we’re not fixing geopolitics with a mortgage.
And still, people need housing and life goes on.
We could spend hours talking about wars, elections, AI, oil prices, and recession odds. None of that is trivial. But none of it comes with a clear “buy” or “don’t buy” signal attached to your name. Real estate doesn’t happen in a vacuum, but it also doesn’t pause until the world calms down. People still get born, separated, relocated, promoted, laid off, and retired. They still need somewhere to live.
Obsessing over every 0.25% Bank of Canada move is a distraction. It’s what people do when they don’t want to look at the deeper questions, like:
What’s happening in my actual life?
How long do I plan to stay put?
Does this home and this mortgage make sense for me, not for a headline?
Real adults don’t live on pause waiting for the perfect interest rate. A quarter of a percent isn’t going to magically fix or destroy your life. They make decisions based on:
their work and income
their family reality
their time horizon
the kind of home and neighbourhood they actually want to live in
The market we have now is not a tragedy. It’s a reset. It’s the system sobering up after a three-year binge.
So instead of asking, “Will it go back to 2021?” the real question is:
“How do I want to live in the market we actually have?”
Once you answer that honestly, the decision to buy, sell, or stay put becomes a lot clearer.
3. The long‑term backdrop: a reset inside a housing shortage
Now zoom out beyond one year.
Canada’s housing problem is not a feeling. CMHC has done the math.
To get back to something like 2019‑level affordability, CMHC estimates Canada needs roughly 3.5 million additional homes by 2030, on top of what we were already expected to build. Most of that shortfall is in Ontario and British Columbia, with smaller but still important gaps in Quebec and Alberta.
In a 2025 update, CMHC went further. They now estimate that, to restore affordability by 2035, we would need to almost double the pace of building to around 430,000 to 480,000 new housing units per year. If we don’t, Canada faces a housing supply gap of about 2.6 million units by 2035.
At the same time, Ottawa’s latest immigration plan still calls for roughly 380,000 new permanent residents per year between 2026 and 2028. Temporary resident numbers are being tightened, but we’re not closing the door; we’re trying to manage the flow.
And while we need more homes, a lot of builders are doing the opposite of ramping up. With today’s construction costs, financing costs, and pricing, some projects simply don’t pencil out. That means delays, pauses, and cancellations instead of the surge in housing starts CMHC is calling for.
Put that together and the picture isn’t complicated:
we still need hundreds of thousands of new homes over the next decade
we are still adding hundreds of thousands of people each year
we are not building at the pace the federal housing agency says we need
If we don’t build enough and we keep adding people, the “extra inventory” you see during this 2026 reset does not sit there forever. It gets absorbed:
through end‑users buying homes to live in
through investors repositioning their portfolios
through rents adjusting as people compete for the homes that exist
CMHC’s own modelling, summarized by independent analysts, shows one scenario where, if we keep building at the current pace, the average home price in Toronto could be around $1.95 million by 2035 – roughly a 60% jump from 2024. In that same scenario, average rents across Canada rise by about 40% in ten years.
That is not a promise and it’s not a threat. It’s a picture of what happens if we carry on under‑building while the population keeps growing.
Fast‑forward a few years and it’s not hard to imagine a very different conversation:
fewer new buildings actually completing
more households competing for a smaller pool of listings and rentals
renewed upward pressure on both prices and rents
That’s why I don’t treat this softer 2026 market as a permanent “new normal.” It’s a phase inside a long‑term shortage.
The question isn’t, “Will real estate ever go up again?”
The question is, “How do I want to live through the next 5–10 years of this story – as a renter, as an owner, or by staying exactly where I am and doing nothing?”
4. Interest rates and what you actually pay each month
A lot of the fear around 2026 comes from interest rates.
Most people’s brains are still anchored to two moments:
the pandemic lows, when five-year fixed and variable rates started with a 1 or a 2
the 2023 highs, when many buyers were staring at 5–6% on a five-year fixed
What matters more than either headline is the combination of rate and price.
As of the latest Bank of Canada announcement, the overnight rate is holding at 2.25% after a series of cuts from the peak. Economists and markets widely expected a hold, and many now believe we’re near the bottom of this rate-cutting cycle rather than the start of another big move.
In plain language: the big swings appear to be behind us for now. We’re in a zone the Bank considers “about right” for keeping inflation near target while the economy digests everything else that’s going on.
On the street, that translates into something much more practical for you as a buyer: on solid files, I’m seeing insured five-year mortgages in roughly the mid-3% to high-3% range for fixed, and mid-3% range for variables with good lenders.
No one can promise that rates will stay exactly where they are, but after a few years of whiplash, a period of relative stability is actually helpful. It gives households and businesses a clearer backdrop to plan against.
And this is where I come back to the same point I make throughout this article:
The game is not to guess whether the next move is 0.25% up or down.
The real question is:
“At roughly today’s rates and today’s prices, what can I comfortably carry without losing sleep?”
That’s the rate side. Now let’s put some numbers to the monthly payment side.
Imagine two different markets.
Scenario A – peak frenzy (early 2022)
purchase price: $1,000,000
down payment (20%): $200,000
mortgage: $800,000
interest rate: 2% (5-year fixed)
amortization: 25 years
The rough principal-and-interest payment on that mortgage is about $3,400 a month.
(That’s before tax and insurance.)
Scenario B – 2026 reset (after roughly a 20% price drop)
In many pockets, prices from that 2022 peak have come down in the 15–25% range.
So let’s use a simple 20% drop for comparison.
purchase price: $800,000
down payment (20%): $160,000
mortgage: $640,000
interest rate: 4% (5-year fixed)
amortization: 25 years
The rough principal-and-interest payment on that mortgage is also about $3,400 a month.
So in both cases, you’re paying roughly the same amount every month.
But in the 2026 scenario:
the purchase price is $200,000 lower
your starting mortgage is $160,000 smaller ($800,000 vs $640,000)
you’ve kept $40,000 in your pocket instead of putting it into the down payment on a more expensive home
and your land transfer tax and closing costs are lower because they’re based on a smaller purchase price
You can absolutely choose to put more down if you have it and push that payment lower. The point is this:
A higher rate on a smaller loan can land you in the same monthly ballpark as a low rate on an over-inflated purchase price.
Most buyers still obsess about the interest rate. The smarter questions are:
“What am I actually borrowing?”
“How much principal am I on the hook for over the next 20–25 years?”
5. “70% of mortgages are renewing” — what that actually means
You’ve probably seen the headline that “most mortgages” or “70% of mortgages” are renewing in 2025–2026.
The way it lands is:
everyone is about to hit a wall,
payments will double,
and the whole market will fall apart.
Let’s slow that down and look at what’s actually going on.
First, remember who bought when.
A big chunk of those renewals are people who:
bought before or during the early-2022 peak
paid less for their homes than today’s peak prices
locked in very cheap 5-year rates
have been paying down principal every month for 5 years
So yes, many of them are renewing into higher rates than they had.
If you bought before the peak and locked in one of the cheap five-year rates, you’ve had a head start.
For five years, a big chunk of your monthly payment has been going straight to principal, not interest. By the time you hit renewal, you’re often looking at:
a higher interest rate than you had, on
a smaller mortgage balance than you started with
That’s why, when people actually sit down and do the math early, many are surprised by how familiar the new payment looks. In some cases, it’s very close to what they’ve already been paying.
If your renewal is coming up in the next 6 - 12 months , don’t wait for the letter to arrive in the mail.
Start early:
Talk to your lender and a mortgage broker 6–12 months before renewal. Get a real estimate of what your payment would be at today’s rates, so your brain can stop filling in the worst-case scenario.
Ask about discretionary discounts. The posted rate is rarely the final rate. Lenders often have room to sharpen pricing for existing clients they want to keep, especially right now.
Understand the documentation.
If you simply renew with the same lender on a similar term and amount, they may only need basic items like a fresh credit check and your most recent property tax bill.
If you want to refinance or move your mortgage, expect a deeper look at your income, debts, and the property.
Why is this in an article about buying?
Because some of the people reading this are owners with a renewal coming up who are also thinking about moving.
A renewal is a natural checkpoint:
“If I have to revisit my mortgage anyway, is this the right time to also change the home attached to it?”
For some, the answer will be yes, and they become the buyers in this 2026 market. For others, the answer is, “Not yet, but now I know what renewal will actually cost me,” and they can sleep properly again.
6. A quick rent vs buy lens
I don’t think everyone should own a home at any cost.
But if you’re paying significant rent in the GTA, it’s worth putting that number beside what ownership would actually look like at today’s prices and rates.
Start with where you are:
What is your current rent each month?
How often does it go up? By how much?
Then get a realistic estimate of ownership:
mortgage payment at today’s rates
property tax
condo fees, if it’s a condo
a basic allowance for maintenance
For some people, staying a renter and keeping maximum flexibility is the right call. If you might change cities, change careers, or you simply don’t want to think about repairs, there is nothing wrong with renting.
For others, locking in a roughly fixed cost of housing for the next 5–10 years, even if it stings at first, is the smarter move – especially if they believe rents will keep rising.
On that front, the same CMHC scenarios that show a future price gap also show rents moving up if we don’t build enough. One scenario has average rents across Canada rising by roughly 40% over ten years. That doesn’t mean every building or every city, but it does suggest we shouldn’t assume today’s rent stays flat.
The point isn’t that ownership is always better than renting, or vice versa. The point is that your decision should come from actual numbers on paper, not headlines or fear.
If you run the numbers and buying in 2026 gets you into a home you can reasonably carry for 5–10 years, then this “boring” market may be your window to quietly get in while everyone else is still waiting for a crash that may never come in the way they imagine.
7. Selling and buying in the same market: why the gap matters
If you already own a home, the “Is it a good time to buy?” question is really:
“Is it a good time to sell and buy in the same market?”
Your math is different from a first-time buyer’s.
If you’re selling and buying inside the same cycle, the most important number is the gap between what you sell for and what you buy for – not the headline price of either property.
In a softer market like 2026:
You might sell your current home for less than you would have at the peak.
But you are also buying your next home for less than you would have paid at that same peak.
If both sides of the move are happening in the same conditions, you are trading within one pricing environment instead of selling low now and potentially buying high later.
This can be especially important if:
your mortgage is coming up for renewal anyway
you know your current home no longer fits your life (too big, too small, wrong area)
you want to reduce your monthly carrying costs by downsizing
In that situation, you might choose to:
downsize into something smaller and easier to carry, or
reposition into a different type of property or neighbourhood that fits your next 10 years better
Is it fun to see your current home sell for less than its 2022 “paper value”? No. But if the place you’re moving into is also down from its peak, and the gap between the two is manageable, the move itself can still be a smart decision.
The key questions to ask yourself are:
“If I sell now and buy now, what is the actual dollar gap between the two?”
“Does that gap make sense for the next chapter of my life?”
“Does the new home put me in a better position – financially and practically – over the next 5–10 years?”
If the honest answers are yes, then for you, 2026 can still be a good time to move, even if the market doesn’t feel exciting from the outside.
8. Time horizon: when 2026 can make sense vs when you should wait
This is where the numbers meet your actual life.
Buying in 2026 can make sense if:
You plan to hold the property for at least 5–10 years.
Your income is reasonably stable and not hanging by a thread.
You have a proper down payment, closing costs, and a buffer – you’re not draining every account just to get the keys.
You can handle a 5–10% drop on paper without panicking or needing to sell.
The home actually fits your life – commute, kids, parents, schools – not just “it was a deal.”
Waiting may be smarter if:
You’re pretty sure you’ll need to move again in under 3 years.
Your job, immigration status, relationship, or family situation is in flux.
Your numbers only work at the absolute lowest teaser rate and fall apart if that rate is 1% higher.
You’re running the numbers at night and your chest tightens. That’s your body giving you feedback.
A useful question to ask yourself is:
“If I buy this year and the market drops another 5–10% on paper, but I still own a home that fits my life for the next 7–10 years, would that still feel like a solid decision?”
If the answer is yes, short-term price moves matter less.
If the answer is no, you may not be ready to buy yet – and that’s useful to know now, before you start touring.
9. What you pay vs what it costs to build
Another piece buyers often miss is replacement cost – what it would cost to rebuild the same home today.
Construction materials, labour, trades, and land have all become more expensive over the past decade. Insurance companies see this up close, because they have to decide what it would actually cost to replace a home if something serious happened.
To make it concrete, think about a typical Toronto house.
If I were to buy that home today at its current market price, the replacement cost that an insurance company would use – what it would cost to rebuild from scratch – could easily come in around 20% higher than what I just paid.
They’re not insuring it for the purchase price. They’re insuring it for what it would cost to build again today.
Why does this matter to you as a buyer in the GTA?
Because over time, replacement cost sets a kind of floor under prices. The more expensive it becomes to build the same home, the less likely it is that market prices will stay deeply depressed for long periods, unless we see a serious economic shock.
So if you’re looking at a house or condo in 2026 that’s already down from its 2022 peak, you’re not just comparing against the last cycle. You’re comparing against what it would cost to recreate that home in the future, with more expensive materials and labour.
It doesn’t mean prices only go up in a straight line. But it does mean that “I’ll just wait until it’s 30% cheaper” is not a plan that lines up with how building actually works.
10. Condos vs ground homes: different stories inside the averages
“Is it a good time to buy?” also depends on what you’re buying.
In the last couple of years, condo apartments in the GTA generally took more of a price hit than detached and semi-detached homes. Ground-oriented properties have tended to hold value a bit better.
For buyers, that can mean:
Condos
In some buildings, there is more room to negotiate on price.
You have to pay close attention to building health:
the status certificate and reserve fund
the percentage of investor-owned units
whether big repairs have been done or are coming up
You also need to be honest about monthly condo fees and how they fit your budget.
Freeholds (ground homes)
Detached, semis, and many freehold townhomes haven’t always come down as much as some condos.
You’re not paying condo fees every month.
You are fully responsible for maintenance, repairs, and surprises – roofs, furnaces, plumbing, all of it.
Neither path is automatically better.
The point is that each segment has its own micro-market and its own risks. The GTA average will never tell you what’s really happening to a specific two-bedroom condo in Mimico or a three-bedroom detached home in Bloor West Village.
If you’re serious about buying, you want to zoom in to:
property type
price band
specific pocket or neighbourhood
That’s where the real story – and the real opportunities – sit.
11. My stake in this and how I’m forming this view
You might be thinking:
“Easy for you to say, you’re a real estate broker. If I don’t buy or sell, you don’t get paid.”
Fair. So here’s my stake, clearly.
I’m not just an agent who shows up when it’s time to list or write an offer. I’m also an owner and a landlord.
I own my principal residence.
I own two rental properties.
One of those rentals has a variable-rate mortgage, so I’ve felt every Bank of Canada decision in my own monthly numbers.
I’ve gone through:
rate swings
renewals
refinances
tenant turnover
In other words, I’m not watching this market from the sidelines. I’m living in it financially, the same way my clients are.
Professionally, I’ve spent more than 17 years working with buyers and sellers in Toronto and the west end through hot markets, cold markets, and strange in-between markets like this one.
I also spend a lot of time talking with other professionals whose work touches real estate every day:
mortgage brokers and bank lenders
accountants and financial planners
real estate lawyers
executives at major builder and development firms
institutional lenders and other financiers
brokerage leadership who see what’s actually happening in the numbers
What you’re reading here is a synthesis of:
my own portfolio
my clients’ experiences
and current data from TRREB, CMHC, Royal LePage, and major lenders
You should still run your own numbers and get advice from your own professionals. But you’re not listening to someone reading headlines and guessing; you’re hearing from someone who owns property, carries mortgages, sits in rooms with the people who build and finance housing in this region, and has to live with the consequences of being wrong.
I don’t have the luxury of magical thinking. I have to look at how this actually works in real life and make decisions from there — for myself and for my clients.
12. So… is it a good time to buy in 2026?
Here’s the honest answer:
For some people, yes.
If you:
have a solid 5–10 year time horizon
have stable income and a real buffer, not just enough to close
can handle a 5–10% drop on paper without losing sleep or needing to sell
and you’ve found a home that genuinely fits your life
…then buying in 2026 can make sense, knowing that prices could still move around on paper while you simply live in the home.
For others, the honest answer is probably not yet.
There are people who were priced out of the ownership market even prior to 2022, when money was cheaper. Higher rates and higher qualifying standards haven’t suddenly made it easy for them. For those households, this article is about understanding the landscape and planning ahead, not forcing a purchase that doesn’t fit.
And then there’s a third group: people who could have bought in 2022, and still have roughly the same income, savings, and stability today. For them, the decision isn’t “Was 2022 better?” It’s, “At today’s prices and today’s rates, do the numbers still work, and does this home fit the next chapter of my life?”
Doing nothing is still a decision — the key is that it’s conscious and based on real numbers, not fear or FOMO.
This article is general information, not personal advice. Real estate in Ontario is regulated by RECO and TRESA. Any real move you make should be grounded in:
a full conversation with your mortgage professional
your own accountant or tax professional
and your real estate lawyer reviewing what you’re signing
If, after reading this, you’re staring at a real decision — a lease ending, a renewal coming up, your family expanding, a move you can’t avoid — that’s what my Clarity Call is for.
We take about 30 minutes to look at:
your numbers
your timing
your realistic options
You leave with one clear next step that actually fits your life.
You’re the decision-maker.
The market won’t sit still. The point of everything you’ve just read is to give you enough clarity to decide whether a move now truly serves your life.
If you’re a first-time buyer, you may also want to read my article on the key money tools and rules for 2026 – it walks through the main programs, tax breaks, and mortgage rules that can help you build your first down payment.
8 Money Tools Every First-Time Home Buyer in Canada Should Know in 2026