High Supply, Resilient Prices – May Report

Welcome to the first of my monthly clarity posts — no fluff, no hype, just real insight for smart decisions in a moving market.

The Greater Toronto Area real estate market crossed a significant threshold in May 2025, with active listings reaching 30,964—the highest ever recorded. This marks a 13% month-over-month increase, a 42% year-over-year surge, and an 89% jump compared to the ten-year average for May.
Despite this flood of supply, Toronto home prices remained stable. The average sales price across the GTA rose 1% from April to $1,120,879. Sales volume, however, came in at 6,244 transactions—translating to nearly five months of inventory and signaling a more buyer-friendly housing environment.

Federal Incentives Aim to Support First-Time Buyers

In response to affordability challenges in high-priced cities like Toronto and Vancouver, the Canadian government introduced a first-time homebuyer incentive offering a full GST rebate on new homes priced up to $1 million. This initiative is expected to ease upfront costs and support demand in the pre-construction housing market.

By raising the qualifying price cap, the program better reflects entry-level pricing in the GTA, especially for new condos and townhomes. While long-term impact remains to be seen, this measure could stimulate momentum in the new build segment.

Record-High GTA Condo Inventory Meets Tepid Demand

The GTA condo market hit a new inventory high with 10,523 active listings, a 120% increase over the 10-year average. Sales, however, remained subdued at 1,482—36% below historical norms.
Despite the imbalance, condo prices in Toronto held steady, averaging $683,413. This suggests that while inventory is abundant, sellers are holding their ground, and buyers remain highly selective.

Detached Homes: Sales Up, Prices Slightly Down

Detached home prices in the GTA saw a modest decline in May, averaging $1,425,264. Inventory rose to 13,770 active listings, a 16% monthly increase and 65% above the 10-year norm.
Despite softer pricing, sales rose 17% to 2,998, reflecting interest from well-positioned buyers, especially in outer areas where larger properties have become more accessible.

Townhomes Drop Below $1M as Inventory Climbs

Townhomes in Toronto and the GTA averaged $995,662, falling just below the $1 million mark. Inventory reached 2,287—only the third time this threshold has been crossed and a 115% increase from the 10-year average.
Sales saw a 14% monthly lift, with 650 townhomes sold, suggesting ongoing appeal for buyers seeking space and value.

Semi-Detached Market Reaches New Inventory High

Semi-detached homes in Toronto averaged $1,098,447, marking a 1% monthly price increase. Inventory climbed to a new high of 1,680 active listings, while sales rose 10% to 617 units.
This segment continues to attract buyers looking for a hybrid of privacy and location, particularly in established neighbourhoods.

Expert Insight from TRREB

“Home ownership costs are more affordable this year compared to last. Average selling prices are lower, and so too are borrowing costs,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Chief Information Officer. “All else being equal, sales should be up relative to 2024. The issue is a lack of economic confidence. Once households are convinced that trade stability with the United States will be established and/or real options to mitigate our reliance on the United States exist, home sales will pick up. Further cuts in borrowing costs would also be welcome news to homebuyers.”

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers in 2025

The Toronto real estate market in 2025 is defined by choice, caution, and recalibration. Inventory is at record levels, giving buyers time and leverage. Sellers are adjusting expectations, but home values remain remarkably steady—a sign of long-term confidence in the GTA.

For serious buyers, this moment may represent one of the best windows for negotiation seen in years. For sellers, pricing with precision and staging with intention are key to standing out in a saturated market.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching—this is not a market to ignore.

Important information: This session is available only to individuals not currently under contract with another real estate brokerage or agent.
If you are already working with a REALTOR® under an active Buyer Representation Agreement or Listing Agreement, I cannot legally provide guidance or strategy. If you're unsure, please email me at luba@lubabeley.com before booking.

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Sales Rise for Fourth Consecutive Month as GTA Housing Market Shows Steady Activity

Greater Toronto Real Estate Market Report – April 2025
Market Insights, Pricing Trends & Buyer Opportunities Across All Property Types

April 2025 followed the typical seasonal trend of increased real estate activity across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). However, while momentum picked up compared to March, total sales remained subdued relative to the same time last year. This pattern reflects a cautious buyer pool still waiting for more clarity around interest rates and economic stability following Canada’s recent federal election.

Market Activity: Sales Down, Listings Up

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), REALTORS® reported 5,601 home sales through the MLS® system in April—a 23.3% drop compared to April 2024. This year-over-year decline signals continued hesitancy, but on a month-over-month basis, sales edged upward, showing early signs of stabilization.

At the same time, new listings rose 8.1% year-over-year, with 18,836 homes hitting the market. This surge in inventory means buyers now have significantly more options than they did a year ago—and more leverage when it comes to price negotiations.

Average Prices: A More Balanced Market

The average selling price across all home types landed at $1,107,463, reflecting a 4.1% drop from April 2024. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark fell 5.4% year-over-year, confirming a broad softening of prices across the region. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices also dipped slightly from March.

This cooling trend, paired with increasing supply and early signs of lower borrowing costs, is gradually making homeownership more accessible for some buyers—especially those previously priced out of the market.

Property Type Breakdown

The April numbers show varied dynamics across detached homes, condos, townhomes, and semis, with each segment telling its own story.

Detached Homes

Detached properties saw the strongest growth in monthly sales, with 2,556 transactions, up 18.6% from March. Prices held steady at $1,431,495, signaling that this segment may be finding its footing after previous declines.
Inventory remains elevated, with 11,795 detached homes available, though this aligns more closely with historical norms and provides ample choice for buyers in search of space.

Condominium Apartments

The condo market is seeing a surge in supply and return-to-2021 pricing levels.

• Average Price: $678,048

• Sales: 1,430 (↑1.8% from March, fourth month of gains)

• Inventory: Soared to 128.8% above the 10-year April average

Despite softer prices, the consistent rise in condo sales month after month suggests that affordability in this category is pulling buyers back into the market.

Townhomes

Townhomes experienced a modest price increase, gaining $4,444 from March, with an average price of $1,005,487.

• Sales: 571, up 13% month-over-month

• Inventory: Reached 2,061 active listings, the second-highest level on record

This segment continues to appeal to families and upsizing condo owners, especially with inventory reaching record levels.

Semi-Detached Homes

Semis had a 2% dip in average price, landing at $1,088,848, but showed strong activity with 565 sales—a 16.5% increase over March.
Inventory here also climbed, with 1,458 active listings, which is 78% higher than the 10-year April average, contributing to more balance in this mid-market segment.

Key Takeaways for Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers:
You’re entering a market with more options, softer pricing, and less competition than in recent years. With interest rates expected to ease later in the year, some are choosing to act now—while others continue to wait. Either way, you now have leverage, particularly if you're financially prepared and clear on your goals.

For Sellers:
Pricing strategically is more important than ever. Homes that are well-presented and accurately priced are still moving—especially in popular areas—but overpricing in today’s market often leads to longer time on market and price adjustments. Inventory levels are climbing, so differentiation is key.

What’s Next?

Market performance through the rest of spring and into summer will likely hinge on macroeconomic signals: interest rate announcements, inflation stability, and international trade conditions—particularly Canada’s evolving relationship with the U.S. A more stable outlook could fuel renewed buyer confidence.

For now, we remain in a buyer-friendly, choice-rich, price-aware environment. Whether you're buying, selling, or planning your next move, the key is preparation, timing, and working with someone who understands how to navigate these shifts with clarity and strategy.

Have questions about your neighbourhood or your next step? Let’s connect.

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GTA Market Finds Its Footing Amid Elevated Supply and Growing Demand

The first quarter of 2025 has been marked by ongoing economic uncertainty, influenced by shifting trade policies and broader headline-driven volatility. Despite this, the average cost of a home across the GTA rose to $1,093,254 up 5 per cent from January’s low and 1 per cent month-over-month. Compared to March 2024, however, prices remain 2.5 per cent lower.

The most notable trend in March was the persistence of elevated inventory. Active listings rose from 19,536 in February to 23,462 in March—an increase of 20.1 per cent month-over-month. This places current inventory well above the ten-year average, continuing February’s trend of oversupply, which peaked at 93 per cent above historical norms. While sales increased by 24 per cent to 5,011 transactions, the additional listings have further shifted market conditions in favour of buyers.

Recent trade developments, including new tariff announcements on imported goods and automobiles, have added to market uncertainty. While the immediate effects on real estate are indirect, the potential for rising inflation and reduced consumer confidence could shape buyer sentiment in the months ahead.

Detached home prices held relatively flat, with the average sales price at $1,439,268, representing a monthly decline of less than half a per cent. Detached inventory dropped by approximately 2,000 properties, a 26.3 per cent decline, bringing the total to 5,804 active listings at the end of March. Sales increased to 2,155 homes under contract, a 26 per cent monthly gain, though still down 25 per cent compared to last year.

The condo market experienced a similar monthly dip of less than 1 per cent, with the average sales price at $682,019. Inventory fell sharply in this category, with 2,957 fewer active listings, resulting in a 38 per cent monthly decline. There are now 4,681 condos actively listed, a 40 per cent decline from last year’s monthly inventory average of 7,814. Condo sales increased by 14.6 per cent on a monthly basis, resulting in 1,404 sales during the month.

Townhome values once again surpassed the $1 million mark, with the average sale price reaching $1,001,043. Inventory dipped modestly, totalling 1,189 active listings, a 15 per cent monthly decline. Sales saw a 25 per cent monthly increase, with 505 properties going under contract during March.

Semi-detached homes posted the strongest monthly price gain among all asset classes, rising 3 per cent to an average sales price of $1,111,791. Inventory declined by 18 per cent, resulting in 767 active listings at month-end. Sales jumped 36 per cent month-over-month, with 485 semi-detached properties sold.

“Given the current trade uncertainty and the upcoming federal election, many households are likely taking a wait-and-see approach to home buying. If trade issues are solved or public policy choices help mitigate the impact of tariffs, home sales will likely increase. Home buyers need to feel their employment situation is solid before committing to monthly mortgage payments over the long term,” said TRREB’s Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer.

As the GTA moves into the spring market, signs of renewed activity are beginning to surface, even as overall market dynamics remain in flux. Contrary to expectations of tightening conditions, March brought a continued build-up in inventory, with active listings rising well above the ten-year average. This sustained supply has kept market conditions more favourable for buyers, even as sales trend upward. Price growth has been modest and uneven across asset classes, with semi-detached and townhomes showing stronger momentum, while condos and detached homes remain relatively stable. Although demand is improving, sales continue to trail historical norms, and broader economic forces—including interest rate sensitivity and trade-related uncertainty—remain influential. The months ahead will be critical in determining whether this elevated inventory converts into stronger absorption or maintains a more tempered market pace.

Photo above was taken on March 16, 2025

Toronto Skyline

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Greater Toronto Area Market Update: February Sees Higher Sales and Expanding Supply

Canada and the U.S. have officially entered a tariff battle, with new trade measures taking effect on Tuesday, March 4. While the long-term implications are still unfolding, it's clear that both short-term and potential long-term economic consequences will need to be carefully navigated.

A trade conflict of this scale introduces significant economic uncertainty, with ripple effects across various industries, including real estate. Higher tariffs on goods and materials are expected to drive up construction and renovation costs, disrupt supply chains, and potentially slow economic growth. This could weigh on consumer and investor confidence, leading to more cautious spending and investment decisions. The full impact on the housing market will depend on the duration and severity of the trade tensions, but factors such as rising construction costs, shifts in interest rates, and changing market demand could all influence housing prices, inventory levels, and mortgage rates in both the short and long term.

Despite broader economic factors influencing the market, the Greater Toronto Area's real estate market demonstrated notable growth in February. This growth is highlighted by a 4.1 per cent increase in prices, bringing the average sales price to $1,084,547 across the region—an increase of $43,553.. Inventory rose 13.8 per cent month-over-month and 75 per cent year-over-year, reaching 19,536 active listings. This mirrors the peak inventory levels of 2023 while surpassing totals seen in 2022, 2021, and 2020. Sales activity increased by 4.9 per cent, resulting in 4,037 total transactions. However, both inventory and sales remain far from historical February norms. Sales are down 42 per cent compared to the 10-year average, while inventory is an astonishing 93 per cent above its historical average, highlighting a significant shift in market dynamics.

A recent Royal LePage survey found that approximately 1.2 million mortgages will renew in 2025, with 85 per cent of them originally secured when the Bank of Canada’s key lending rate was at or below one per cent. “When it comes to post-pandemic mortgage renewals, many Canadians have avoided the worst-case scenario of having to sell their homes due to the inability to cover the cost of their mortgage, thanks to solid employment trends and declining interest rates,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “Nevertheless, some

will face a substantial rise in their mortgage costs, putting added pressure on their household finances. Many in this situation are exploring options to lower their monthly fees, such as extending their amortization period, a tactic that has proven popular.”

Detached home prices continued to rise, with a 4.9 per cent monthly increase, bringing the average price to $1,445,879. Inventory rose to 7,885 listings, a 103 per cent year-over-year increase. Sales activity strengthened, with 1,706 detached home sales, marking a 7.9 per cent monthly increase. The growing supply has provided buyers with more options, yet demand remains steady, supporting gradual price appreciation.

The condo segment saw a modest price increase, with the average price rising 2.5 per cent to $688,055. This marks the seventh consecutive month where condo values have remained below the $700,000 threshold. Inventory increased to 7,638 active listings, representing a 47.6 per cent yearly jump. Sales remained solid, rising 5 per cent month-over-month to 1,225 transactions. While higher inventory is offering buyers more choices, price fluctuations suggest a market still seeking equilibrium.

Townhouse prices remained relatively stable, with an average price of $991,066. Inventory grew to 1,398 listings, marking a 125 per cent yearly increase. Meanwhile, sales activity declined slightly, falling 1.5 per cent month-over-month to 404 total transactions. Despite steady demand, the increased supply is preventing significant price movements in this segment.

The semi-detached segment posted a 3 per cent monthly gain, bringing the average sales price to $1,079,996. Inventory rose to 937 active listings, representing a 159 per cent yearly increase. Monthly sales increased by 2 per cent, with 356 total transactions in February.

“On top of lingering affordability concerns, home buyers have arguably become less confident in the economy. Uncertainty about our trade relationship with the United States has likely prompted some households to take a wait-and-see attitude towards buying a home. If trade uncertainty is alleviated and borrowing costs continue to trend lower, we could see much stronger home sales activity in the second half of this year,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

While sales activity has improved, rising inventory levels continue to shape market conditions across the GTA. Buyers are seeing more selection across all housing types, which is helping to moderate price growth in some segments. As the spring market approaches, further clarity on interest rate policy and economic conditions will be key factors in determining whether demand can keep pace with the growing supply.

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Rising Listings, Softer Prices, GTA Real Estate Faces a Pivotal Moment

The latest Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s Market Outlook and Year in Review report indicates that a strong housing supply is expected to keep home price growth in line with inflation. As a result, home prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are projected to see moderate increases over the year.

The average home price is currently $1,040,994, reflecting a 2.4% decrease from December. This price is now approximately $5,000 below its February 2021 level, a time when values were still rising toward the market peak of $1,334,544 in February 2022.

Interestingly, this price point has been seen twice before in recent years, both times in January 2023 and January 2024. On each previous occasion, values rebounded in the following months, suggesting this level could act as a potential floor for the market. However, if this support line fails to hold, price volatility is likely to follow.

While home values remain near multi-year lows, sellers have not been deterred. Newly active listings reached 12,392, bringing the total active inventory to 17,157 by the end of the month. This represents a 92 per cent increase compared to the 10-year historical monthly average of 8,916.

On a positive note, home sales rose 14.5 per cent month-over-month to 3,847 transactions. However, on a yearly basis, sales remain 8 per cent lower and are down over 17 per cent compared to the 10-year monthly average.

As the market adjusts, various home segments continue to show different trends. The detached home segment across the GTA recorded a 1.5 per cent monthly decline, bringing the average sale price to $1,377,430. The month saw 5,000 newly active listings, the highest January total since 2013. By the end of the month, active listings reached 6,832, reflecting a 12 per cent monthly increase and a 90 per cent surge from January 2024. Detached home sales totalled 1,580, an 11 per cent increase from December.

The condominium segment continued its downward trend, marking its ninth consecutive month of price declines. The average condo sale price fell to $670,675, representing a 1.6 per cent decline on both a monthly and yearly basis. Newly active condo listings surged to 4,589, setting a new monthly record. Total condo inventory reached 6,913, marking a 47 per cent yearly increase and a 134 per cent surge from the 10-year monthly average. Sales, however, showed some strength, rising 21 per cent month-over-month, with 1,161 properties put under contract.

Townhomes were one of the few asset classes to record an annual price increase. The average sale price of $983,856 represents a 2 per cent gain year-over-year. Active inventory reached 1,180, a staggering 137 per cent increase compared to the 10-year monthly average. Townhome sales totalled 409, up 8 per cent from December.

The semi-detached segment remained essentially flat year-over-year, with the average sale price at $1,047,728. Active listings finished the month at 798, reflecting a 143 per cent year-over-year increase and a 98.5 per cent jump from the 10-year monthly average. Semi-detached sales rose 20 per cent from December, totalling 349 transactions.

As January closes, the GTA real estate market remains in transition. While prices have softened, inventory levels are at historic highs, and buyer activity is showing some resilience. The coming months will be pivotal in determining whether this is a temporary reset or the beginning of a more prolonged adjustment.

At Royal LePage®, our 110-year legacy of serving Canadians ensures that buyers and sellers receive expert guidance through every market cycle. As a proudly Canadian company, we remain committed to helping our clients navigate the evolving real estate landscape with confidence and clarity.

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2024 Year in Review: Insights into the Greater Toronto Area Housing Market

The GTA real estate market wrapped up 2024 with an average sales price of $1,067,186, representing a 1.6 per cent decline compared to the previous year. Full-year data revealed an average sales price of $1,111,487, indicating a relatively stable selling price over the past twelve months. Total annual sales reached 67,907, a 2.5 per cent increase year-over-year.

The defining theme of 2024 was inventory. Active listings surged dramatically throughout the year, reaching a record-breaking total of 230,949—a significant 42.6 per cent increase. December followed the usual seasonal pattern of reduced activity, yet the year closed with 15,393 active listings, setting a new high for December inventory levels. This surge reflected a mix of cautious buyers and sellers adjusting to a shifting market environment.

In 2024, the Bank of Canada implemented five consecutive interest rate cuts, reducing the benchmark rate by a cumulative 175 basis points. Starting in June and concluding with two substantial 50 basis point reductions in October and December, the policy rate ended the year at 3.25 per cent. These cuts created a more favourable environment for prospective buyers, particularly those entering the market. According to Royal LePage's 2025 Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate market is expected to see a 5 per cent year-over-year increase.

“Improved lending conditions, combined with declining interest rates, will unlock new housing opportunities for many Canadians in the new year. First-time buyers will be the primary beneficiaries of these initiatives, as their ability to borrow more for less with a smaller down payment will help bring them closer to their first home purchase,” said Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage.

The detached home segment ended the year with a December average sales price of $1,399,209, reflecting a 1.3 per cent yearly decline. The yearly average price for detached homes was $1,445,133, representing a modest $3,000 drop. Annual sales totaled 30,783, a 3.7 per cent increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, inventory levels grew 35.9 per cent year-over-year, ending the year with 95,590 active listings.

Condominium prices in December averaged $681,855. For the full year, the average condo price was $700,463, a 1.7 per cent decrease compared to 2023. Annual condo sales totaled 18,771, down by 2 per cent from the prior year. While sales were slightly lower, active listings increased sharply by 48.8 per cent, reaching 89,119 by year-end.

Townhomes closed the year with an average December sales price of $1,015,505, contributing to a yearly average of $1,012,792—a 2.6 per cent decline compared to 2023. Annual sales in this segment climbed 10 per cent to 6,621 transactions. However, inventory also rose significantly, with active listings increasing 31.5 per cent to 10,782 by the end of the year.

The semi-detached segment showed stronger performance, with an average December selling price of $1,088,543, a 5.9 per cent increase over the previous year. This brought the yearly average sale price to $1,096,619, a modest $2,000 decline from the 2023 average. Annual sales totaled 5,970, up by 4 per cent, while inventory rose 31.5 per cent, reaching 10,782 active listings for the year.

“Market conditions varied by market segment in 2024. Sales of single-family homes, including detached houses, increased last year, whereas condo apartment sales were down. Many would-be first-time buyers remained on the sidelines, anticipating more interest rate relief in 2025. The lack of first-time buyers impacted the less-expensive condo segment more so than the single-family segments,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The GTA’s housing market in 2024 reflected both the challenges of recent years and the beginnings of a recovery. The high inventory levels created opportunities for buyers, while sellers adjusted to evolving market conditions.

As 2025 begins, the Greater Toronto Area housing market is poised for increased activity and growth. With interest rates continuing to decline, improved affordability, and rising buyer confidence, the outlook for the coming year is optimistic. Renewed momentum, alongside efforts to expand housing supply, offers hope for greater balance and opportunity for both buyers and sellers in the months ahead.

If you want to discuss how these trends relate to your situation or are curious about your property’s value or affordability, feel free to reach out!

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Buying Activity Increases Across the GTA as Purchasing Power Improves

Home sales across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continued to rise in November, driven by increased demand, especially for detached properties. A total of 5,875 homes were sold, reflecting a 38 per cent year-over-year increase and building on the 43 per cent growth seen in October. The region’s aggregate sale price also climbed by 2 per cent compared to last year, reaching an average of $1,106,050, largely due to heightened demand for larger properties.

Inventory levels dipped slightly month-over-month to 21,818 units, in line with typical seasonal trends as we enter winter. However, compared to the same time last year, inventory levels were up 30 per cent, providing buyers with a significantly larger selection of properties.

The GTA is also seeing increased interest from American buyers, particularly following the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Data from royallepage.ca, Royal LePage’s consumer real estate portal, showed a notable spike in U.S.-originated sessions the day after the election. This has led some Americans to explore the possibility of relocating to Canada.

"Consistently ranked as one of the best countries in the world to live in, Canada continues to be a top destination for international relocation—a trend that is unlikely to change in the years ahead," said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.

Detached homes continued to lead the market in November, with 2,669 homes sold, marking a 42 per cent increase year-over-year. The average sale price for detached properties rose 3.4 per cent to $1,452,518. Inventory for detached homes dropped to 5,096, reflecting an 8 per cent decrease from October, though it remained 21 per cent higher compared to the previous year.

The condominium market saw a modest price dip of $4,439 month-over-month, bringing the average sale price to $689,599. Sales remained strong, with 1,640 units sold, up 28 per cent year-over-year. Condo inventory rose by 25 per cent to 8,209 units, continuing the trend of increased choices for buyers.

Townhomes experienced the largest yearly growth in sales, with 582 units sold—a 60 per cent year-over-year increase. Prices remained steady month-over-month, with the average sale price at $994,251. Inventory levels also rose, with 1,542 townhomes available, marking a 36 per cent year-over-year increase.

The semi-detached segment showed more moderate growth, with 502 properties sold, a 24 per cent increase from last year. Prices dipped by 2.8 per cent month-over-month, bringing the average sale price to $1,077,254. Semi-detached inventory rose to 1,110 units, a 38 per cent year-over-year increase.

“Market conditions have tightened, particularly for single-family homes. The detached market segment has experienced price growth above inflation, especially in the City of Toronto. Meanwhile, the condominium segment continues to see lower average selling prices compared to last year, offering condo buyers a lot of choice and negotiating power. As borrowing costs decrease in the months ahead, this will likely attract more renter households into homeownership,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

As we approach the end of the year, the GTA continues to be one of Canada’s most sought-after real estate markets. With the expected increase in purchasing power due to lower interest rates and changes to mortgage rules, it’s anticipated that more buyers will enter the market in 2025, driving higher sales activity.

If you want to discuss how these trends relate to your situation or are curious about your property’s value or affordability, feel free to reach out!

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Toronto Market Heats Up: Rising Sales, Stable Prices Amid Interest Rate Drops

October Highlights: A Positive Shift in the Greater Toronto Area Real Estate Market

October brought an exciting surge in home sales across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), reflecting a dynamic shift in the market landscape. A total of 6,658 properties went under contract, showcasing a remarkable 33% increase from September and an impressive 43% jump year-over-year. This momentum is a strong indicator of renewed buyer confidence!

Home prices also experienced a modest rise, up 2.5% from the previous month, with the average sale price reaching $1,135,215. Although active listings saw a slight decline of 4% to 24,481, the market welcomed 15,328 new properties, ensuring buyers have plenty of options to choose from.

The recent 50-basis-point rate cut by the Bank of Canada is expected to significantly impact the GTA real estate market. Lower borrowing costs are likely to entice more buyers, especially those who felt restricted by higher rates. With affordability being a key concern, reduced mortgage rates may provide welcome relief for prospective homeowners, particularly first-time buyers eager to step into the market. Phil Soper, President and CEO of Royal LePage, noted that, “Activity in Canada’s housing market has been sluggish in many regions due to higher borrowing costs, but today’s more aggressive cut to lending rates could cause the tide to turn quickly.” For those with variable-rate mortgages or approaching loan renewals, this news couldn’t be better timed!

Segment Breakdown

Detached Homes
The detached market showcased strong performance with 3,139 sales, marking a 33% monthly increase and a remarkable 45% rise compared to last year. The average price for detached homes reached $1,462,838, reflecting a healthy month-over-month increase of 2.8%. Inventory remains elevated, with 10,610 active listings—24% higher than in October 2023—giving buyers plenty of choices.

Condos
The condo market also made impressive strides, with sales climbing to 1,722 units, which is a 31% increase from the previous month and a 33% increase year-over-year. The average condo price rose by 1.6%, reaching $694,038. While active listings for condos decreased slightly by 2% to 8,774, it’s only the second decline in inventory this year, and condo inventory remains 26% above last year’s levels.

Semi-Detached Homes
In the semi-detached segment, sales reached 612 units, reflecting a 37% increase from September and a 43% rise from the previous year. The average price for semi-detached homes increased by 1.5% to $1,108,376, with inventory exceeding historical norms at 1,259 active listings—up 13% year-over-year.

Townhomes
Townhome sales also rebounded strongly, with 681 units sold—a fantastic 37% monthly increase and an impressive 69% increase year-over-year. The average sale price for townhomes reached $1,007,417, reflecting a 2.5% increase and marking the first monthly price gain since April.

Looking Ahead

Overall, October was a vibrant month for real estate in the Greater Toronto Area, and we anticipate that improving sales figures will continue as the Bank of Canada progresses with its monetary easing cycle. As borrowing costs decline, property prices often trend upward. TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer emphasizes that, “Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for home buyers.” This abundance of options will help keep home price growth moderate in the coming months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction struggles to keep pace with population growth, we expect selling price growth to accelerate, particularly as we approach the spring of 2025.

If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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GTA Real Estate Market Navigates High Supply and Modest Price Shifts

Homes across the GTA continued to sell, with steady activity following three consecutive 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada—the first time this has happened since the 2009 financial crisis. While analysts anticipated a more robust second half of the year, there is still optimism for a positive shift in the market in the coming months despite September’s more moderate performance.

“The annual improvement in September home sales was more than matched by the increase in new listings over the same period. This resulted in a better-supplied market and increased negotiating power for buyers re-entering the market. The ability to negotiate on price, led to moderate year-over-year price declines, particularly in the more affordable condo apartment and townhouse segments, which are popular with first- time buyers,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. 

As mentioned earlier, home sales were up on a yearly basis, with sales rising to 4,996 a 7.6 per cent increase across the region. However, while sales ticked higher, so did available listings. Total inventory remained elevated at 25,612 properties for sale. This resulted in an average sales price of $1,107,291, reflecting a 3 per cent increase month-over-month but down 1 per cent year-over-year. To highlight the supply-demand imbalance, the ten-year historical monthly average for active listings is 16,641, indicating a 53 per cent surplus of homes for sale compared to typical levels. Meanwhile, the historical average for sales in September is 7,747, marking a 35 per cent deviation from the norm.

Detached homes across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continued to perform strongly, with the average sale price soaring to $1,423,056. This represents a robust 10 per cent increase in sales compared to the same period last year, further underscoring the desirability of detached properties in the region. In tandem with higher sales, inventory levels also rose to 11,241 homes, marking a significant 33 per cent year-over-year increase. The increased supply ensures that potential buyers have a wider selection, even in a competitive market.

Condominium sales, on the other hand, faced ongoing challenges, with the average sale price at $682,542. A total of 1,312 condo sales were recorded in the month, reflecting a market largely stagnant compared to last year but a significant -34 per cent below the ten-year monthly average. Meanwhile, inventory levels have risen steadily, reaching 8,981 active listings, an astonishing 77 per cent increase from historical averages, giving buyers a wide array of choices despite the slower sales pace.

The outlandish stat of the month comes from the townhouse sector. For the first time, there were over 2,000 active listings, representing a staggering 107 per cent increase from the preceding ten years of September data. With such an abundance of inventory, buyers have the unique opportunity to capitalize on this surplus, with the average sales price settling at $982,656.

Semi-detached homes also showed resilience, with the average sale price reaching $1,090,749, reflecting a 6 per cent increase from the previous month while holding steady year-over-year. Inventory rose to 1,333 properties, indicating a 23 per cent year-over-year increase. Sales activity began to pick up as well, with 446 homes sold, marking a 4 per cent increase from last month and an 11 per cent improvement year-over-year. The semi-detached market is gaining momentum as buyers take advantage of the stable pricing and increased availability.

Looking ahead, the Greater Toronto Area real estate market remains in a delicate balance. While interest rate cuts and increased inventory provide more opportunities for buyers, price stability across various property types will likely depend on how quickly demand catches up with supply. As we move into the final months of the year, both buyers and sellers will be keeping a close eye on economic conditions and market trends, with cautious optimism for stronger activity in the coming months. The GTA continues to be a desirable region, but the market's performance will hinge on its ability to absorb the elevated levels of inventory while maintaining buyer confidence.

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If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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Emerging Trends in the Greater Toronto Area Housing Market

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market concluded the summer with higher inventory and lower sales compared to the previous year. In August, the average home sold for $1,074,425, reflecting a slight annual decrease of less than 1%. Active listings remain elevated, with 22,653 homes on the market—a 51% increase above the 10-year monthly average. Sales activity over the summer was sluggish, and August continued this trend, recording 4,975 sales, a 36% decline from the 10-year monthly average.

“The Bank of Canada’s rate cut announced on September 4 will lead to a further improvement in affordability, especially for those using variable rate mortgages. First-time buyers are especially sensitive to changes in borrowing costs. As mortgage rates continue to trend lower this year and next, we should experience an uptick in first-time buying activity, including in the condo market,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Jennifer Pearce.

Throughout August, all asset classes experienced price declines as increased inventory and slower sales impacted overall market performance. The most significant drop was in the condo market, where the average sales price fell to $674,706—a 6% monthly decline and a 16.5% correction from the March 2022 peak, when condos averaged $808,566. Inventory remains elevated, with a 52% year-over-year increase, resulting in 8,336 active condos for sale.

Detached home sales in August totaled 2,218, reflecting a modest 2% annual decline. Detached homes in the GTA now have an average sales price of $1,414,070, representing a negligible 0.16% decrease compared to August 2023. Inventory remains high, with 9,614 active listings, a 39% year-over-year increase.

Townhome and semi-detached property sales were 496 and 427, respectively. Townhome sales matched the number from the previous year, while semi-detached sales declined by 4%. The current average sales price for townhomes is $991,307, marking a 3% annual decrease, while semi-detached properties are selling for an average of $1,026,435, reflecting a similar 3% annual drop.

Overall, the GTA housing market continues to undergo a period of transition, characterized by elevated inventory and slower sales, with the condo market emerging as a potential focal point. The recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, along with easing prices, may present a unique opportunity for buyers. As market conditions evolve, those considering entering the market or making strategic purchases should stay informed and patient, carefully evaluating their options in this dynamic environment. With ample inventory and less competitive pressure, now could be an opportune time to explore potential long-term gains in the Greater Toronto real estate market.

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If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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Buyer Activity Increases Amidst Greater Inventory

The Greater Toronto Area real estate market saw a rise in buyer activity in July 2024, with sales increasing compared to the same period last year. Despite this uptick, buyers continue to benefit from a well-supplied market, as new listings outpaced sales growth, providing more choices and slightly easing price pressures.

In July 2024, 5,391 home sales were reported, marking a 3.3 per cent increase from July 2023. New listings rose by 18.5 per cent year-over-year to 16,296, offering buyers a broader selection of properties. Despite the increased inventory, the average selling price was $1,106,617, down just 0.9 per cent from last July, indicating stable pricing amidst higher supply.

Interest Rates and the Housing Market

The Bank of Canada's recent rate cuts have positively impacted buyer confidence in the GTA real estate market. As reported by The Globe and Mail, "The widely anticipated move brings the bank’s policy rate to 4.5 per cent from 4.75 per cent. It’s the second step in a long-awaited easing cycle that is slowly normalizing borrowing and debt-servicing costs for Canadians." As the cost of borrowing continues to decrease, more potential buyers are expected to enter the market, encouraged by lower monthly mortgage payments and improved affordability. TRREB President Jennifer Pearce anticipates that this trend will lead to an acceleration in sales, as lower interest rates make homeownership more accessible to a broader range of buyers.

July 2024 Asset Class Performance

·         Condos: Sales totaled 1,482, reflecting a 1 per cent year-over-year decline. Despite a 64 per cent increase in listings to 8,879, the average price remained stable at $718,698.

·         Detached Homes: The detached segment recorded 2,446 sales, slightly down from last year, with an average price of $1,425,927, a 3 per cent year-over-year decrease. Inventory reached 10,083, the second consecutive month of the highest inventory since September 2019.

·         Semi-Detached and Townhouses: Semi-detached home prices fell to $1,067,576, a 3 per cent decrease, with sales of 471. Townhouses averaged $1,018,731, a 1 per cent decrease, with sales of 504. Both asset classes saw significant inventory increases, offering buyers substantial choices.

Future Outlook

The recent interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada have begun to rejuvenate buyer confidence, starting to make borrowing more affordable and stimulating interest in home purchases. As these rates continue to decline, the market is well-positioned for further sales growth.

With inventory levels currently high, buyers have more options, leading to stable prices. However, as this inventory is gradually absorbed and borrowing costs continue to decrease, there is potential for upward pressure on home prices.

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If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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GTA Market Sees More Listings, Stable Prices

After four years of elevating borrowing costs, interest rates finally dropped in June, leading to buyer optimism. However, as the June data indicates, this has not yet translated into increased sales. Sales fell to 6,213, marking a 16 per cent decline compared to the same period last year. Despite this, there are reasons for optimism for both buyers and homeowners.

For buyers, the good news is that not only have interest rates begun their descent, inventory has increased and prices remain stable. The average home in the GTA now sells for $1,162,167, essentially unchanged compared to last month and 1.69 per cent below last June.

For homeowners, despite a yearly increase of 67 per cent in active listings, a prolonged period of high interest rates, and recent changes to Canada’s capital gains tax, home prices have proven resilient. As buyers regain market confidence and monetary policy continues to ease, home prices are expected to climb once more.

Royal LePage president Phil Soper is forecasting an increase in home sales and prices after the Bank of Canada made its first interest-rate cut in four years.“It’s been four long years since Canadians have experienced a policy-driven drop in the cost of borrowing,” Mr. Soper said to The Globe and Mail. He said the small rate cut and stronger consumer confidence will generate a “material lift” in sales and “accelerated home price appreciation.”

Inventory across all asset classes increased over the past month, likely contributing to the slower-than-typical seasonal buying activity, however, the desire to own a home remains strong. A recent report by Royal Lepage indicates that more than a quarter of renters in Canada plan to purchase a home within the next two years.  Unsurprisingly, affordability of homes was the main consideration for renters deciding whether to make the leap to home ownership.

Examining individual asset classes across the GTA, the condo sector had the highest number of active listings at 8,806. Even with an 83 per cent yearly inventory increase, the average condo price decreased by only 1.5 per cent to $727,861. However, sales totalled 1,520, marking a 28 per cent decline and the fourth consecutive month of decreasing sales totals.

The detached market totalled 2,988 sales during the month, marking an 11.5 per cent yearly decline. Inventory swelled to 10,130, the highest total since September 2019. Detached properties throughout the month sold for an average of $1,480,399, a 3 per cent yearly decline.

The townhouse and semi-detached sectors indicated steeper yearly declines. The average sale price for a semi-detached home in the GTA is now $1,102,904, reflecting a 9.2 per cent yearly decline. The average townhouse sold for $1,021,866, marking a 6 per cent yearly decline. Both asset classes saw yearly increases in inventory with diminishing sales totals. The semi-detached inventory finished the month at 1,118, a 45.7 per cent yearly increase, with sales of 599, an 11.6 per cent decline. Townhome listings totalled 1,760, an 81.8 per cent yearly increase, with sales of 567, a 14.6 per cent decline.

“The GTA housing market is currently well-supplied. Recent home buyers have benefitted from substantial choice and therefore negotiating power on price. Moving forward, as sales pick up alongside lower borrowing costs, elevated inventory levels will help mitigate against a quick run-up in selling prices,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. 

Overall, while sales have yet to pick up as expected, the market shows signs of resilience with increased inventory and stable home prices. Buyers and sellers alike should remain optimistic as the market continues to adjust to the new interest rate environment.

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If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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Inventory Climbs as Bank of Canada Cuts Key Interest Rate for First Time in Four Years

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Spring Sees More Listings, Stable Prices in the GTA

In April, the GTA witnessed an increase in new listings, seeing 18,088 properties available for sale.  Notably, this is the highest April inventory in the city since 2018. More properties for sale is welcome news for buyers who have been grappling with inventory scarcity in the preceding years.

More listings resulted in an 8% increase in sales last month compared to March.  This  represents the highest level of sales activity we have seen this year, and the highest number of sales since June of 2023.  Against this backdrop, the average sales price for the month reached $1,156,167, a modest uptick of a quarter of a percent compared to the preceding year.

Looking at individual market segments, the detached market saw an uptick in price, with the average price increasing by 3.3% on a monthly basis to $1,516,070. Detached inventory soared by 68% on a monthly basis, resulting in 7,619 actively listed homes throughout the GTA. Sales figures were bolstered by a 9.7% monthly increase, with 3,175 detached homes securing buyers during the month.

Condo sales also experienced a notable price increase of 9.2% on a monthly basis, resulting in 2,013 sales. This led to an average sales price of $728,067, marking a 4% increase from the previous month. Mirroring the rise in sales, condo inventory rose by 77.8% month over month, with 7,015 condominiums listed for sale across the GTA, marking the highest level since October 2020.

Townhome inventory emerged as the standout performer of the month, doubling the number of active listings compared to the previous month. With 1,235 townhomes for sale and 655 sales recorded throughout the month, the segment achieved an average sales price of $1,044,986. Notably, townhomes stood out as the only market segment to surpass the 100% threshold of listing price versus selling price, with properties on average fetching 105% of the listed price during April.

As highlighted in the recent release by Royal LePage Toronto is set to steal Vancouver’s title as Canada’s most expensive housing market by the end of the year.  “At the end of 2023, we forecast modest price gains in the first half of this year and stronger appreciation in the third quarter, following one or more expected rate cuts. What we’ve seen so far is a boost in sales volumes and prices even greater than predicted,” Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd, said of the Toronto market.“Consistent with our previous forecast, the market did reach a critical tipping point in the first quarter of 2024, when home prices bottomed out and began to appreciate again,” said Phil Soper, president of Royal LePage.

The notion that GTA home values are expected to continue to rise through 2024 and beyond is echoed by TRREB “Generally speaking, buyers are benefitting from ample choice in the GTA resale market in April. As a result, there was little movement in selling prices compared to last year. Looking forward, the expectation is that lower borrowing costs will prompt tighter market conditions in the months to come, which will result in renewed price growth, especially as we move into 2025,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

April also saw a number of new housing announcements make headlines. The Federal budget contained a number of new initiatives to spur housing supply and support affordability, including the augmentation of RRSP withdrawal limits for first-time homebuyers and the extension of mortgage amortization periods. Royal LePage applauds these measures and additional efforts to increase supply, provided they are supported by concrete action.

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March Momentum: GTA Real Estate Market Ends Q1 with Continued Price Growth and Increased Buyer Activity

In March, the Greater Toronto Area saw notable increases in sale prices, inventory levels, and buyer activity. The average home in the GTA now commands a price of $1,121,615, reflecting a 1.17% uptick compared to the same period last year. Active listings increased by 23% year-over-year, with 12,459 properties available for sale. Last month, sellers saw GTA properties fetching an average of 102% of the asking price. Buyer activity, while not as strong as last March, increased over February, with sales rising by 16% month-over-month.

Jason Mercer, Chief Market Analyst at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), noted, “The average selling price edged up in comparison to last year as we moved through the first quarter of 2024. Price growth is expected to accelerate during the spring and even more so in the second half of the year, as sales growth catches up with listings growth and sellers’ market conditions start to emerge in many neighbourhoods.

Lower borrowing costs in the months ahead will help fuel increased demand for ownership housing.” Delving into specific asset classes, the detached segment emerged as the top performer for March, with monthly property values climbing by $22,785 or 1.58%, culminating in an average sales price of $1,466,397. Despite a 10.5% monthly uptick in inventory, it was swiftly absorbed by a 15.9% surge in sales. Impressively, the semi-detached segment witnessed a 25% monthly sales increase, commanding an average of 107% of the asking price in March, resulting in an average sale price of $1,121,645, marking 3.1% yearly growth.

Meanwhile, the townhouse and condo segments experienced more tempered monthly gains. Townhomes boasted an average selling price of $1,039,124, while condos saw average sale prices reach $700,046, representing monthly increases of $5,113 and $4,701, respectively. Notably, both markets saw more inventory come to market, evidenced by a 15% monthly uptick in townhouse inventory and a 12.8% rise in condo listings.

Sales figures in both segments saw 16% growth, underscoring sustained demand. Now that the March school break and holidays are behind us, we should continue to see an uptick in sales activity and prices as we move through April. With anticipated interest rate cuts on the horizon, we will see more buyers come off of the sidelines and compete for available inventory. Tight supply conditions, particularly in the coveted detached segment, will continue to drive higher home prices for the foreseeable future.

Amidst greater competition and rising prices, the struggle to develop new housing options is ongoing. Ontario's recent budget announcement contained a number of housing-related initiatives to encourage new supply, particularly in the rental market, however it lacked the significant focus on housing policies required to make tangible progress on the affordable supply crisis faced by the province now, and longer term. Without an influx of supply or substantially weakened demand, neither of which appear to be on the horizon, the price of homes will continue to rise faster than projected, potentially benefiting sellers, but putting first-time buyers who delay entry into the market at a disadvantage.

If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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GTA Real Estate Market Sees Sales Activity, Prices Climb as Consumers Anticipate a Drop in Interest Rates

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market witnessed a strong surge in activity throughout February, setting an optimistic tone for the region's real estate market as we move into Spring. With a total of 5,607 homes sold, representing an impressive 33% increase from the previous month and a notable 17% rise compared to the same period last year, the market demonstrated renewed vigour. Heightened sales activity translated into a substantial uptick in property prices, with the average home fetching $1,108,720—an impressive monthly increase of $82,017. Notably, this 8% gain marks the largest month-over-month increase since February 2022.

Across all asset classes, there were notable gains in both average sales prices and total monthly sales, signalling a robust start to the year as compared to 2023. Responding to this heightened demand, sellers have re-entered the market with listings, resulting in a monthly total of 11,102 active listings, a 15% yearly increase that offers promise for bolstered inventory levels in 2024, following a year of anemic supply.

The increase in sales was noted by TRREB President Jennifer Pearce, “We have recently seen a resurgence in sales activity compared to last year. The market assumption is that the Bank of Canada has finished hiking rates. Consumers are now anticipating rate cuts in the near future. A growing number of homebuyers have also come to terms with elevated mortgage rates over the past two years.”

Prospective buyers who had been biding their time in anticipation that lower interest rates would lead to an easier path to home ownership in the latter half of 2024 may be met with a different reality, as a recent article in The Globe and Mail suggests interest rate decreases could potentially exacerbate already climbing home prices. “As the bank inches toward easing monetary policy, shelter price inflation and a jumpy real estate market remain the key challenge. Rising mortgage-interest costs, which are directly tied to the bank’s past rate decisions, are the single biggest driver of overall inflation. But interest-rate cuts, which would offer some relief to homeowners with mortgages, will likely push home prices higher, further eroding housing affordability.” 

Delving deeper into specific asset classes across the GTA, the trends in price appreciation and market activity were widespread. The detached market emerged as a frontrunner, with the average sale price surging by $92,784, accompanied by a 43% increase in total sales to 2,495. Similarly, the semi-detached market witnessed substantial gains, with values soaring by $85,593, driving the average sales price to $1,123,896, and a 35% monthly increase in sales to 463.

 In the townhouse market, prices rose by $70,507, reaching an average sales price of $1,034,011, fueled by a remarkable absorption rate of nearly 90% and a 25% monthly increase in sales to 1,016. Similarly, the condo market saw a monthly price increase of $13,366, with the average sale price reaching $695,345, accompanied by a 19% increase in sales to 1,586.

As home prices begin their upward trajectory across the GTA, a recent study conducted by Royal LePage sheds light on the purchasing power of $1 million across Canada. “Years ago, a $1-million budget could buy a generous amount of square footage and access to sought-after neighbourhoods in almost any market,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “Over time, however, we have watched the purchasing power of $1 million vary more widely between cities. These days, this budget can buy a luxurious detached home in one location, or a two-bedroom condominium in another.”

Overall, the GTA housing market's performance in February underscores the demand for housing in Canada's most populous region.  As we march towards a decrease in interest rates and increased competition in the market, the advice and expertise of a real estate professional well-versed in current market dynamics will be the consumer's biggest asset.

If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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GTA Housing Market Begins the Year with Higher Sales Activity as Consumer Confidence Returns

The GTA housing market is beginning to gain momentum, exhibiting robust sales figures across all asset classes in January as compared to last year. The average home sale price for the month settled at $1,026,703, closely mirroring the figures from the same period in 2023. However, the market's activity suggests that 2024 is gearing up to be a considerably busier year than its predecessor.

Total active listings hit 10,093, a 8.5% yearly increase. Although the increase in inventory was modest, it was swiftly overshadowed by strong sales numbers, signalling a resurgence of buyer confidence. Sales surged across the GTA, reaching 4,223, marking impressive 36% yearly growth.

Experts anticipate further market acceleration in the latter part of the year. This period, prior to any decision by the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates, represents a timely opportunity for potential homebuyers to act before market competition picks up. 

As highlighted in a recent Globe and Mail article, attempting to time the mortgage rate cuts may not be the best path forward. “The truth is no one knows the future of interest rates – even Mr. Macklem is uncertain about the possibility and timing of rate cuts. For first-time home buyers navigating the uncertainty, it’s crucial to acknowledge that a crystal ball for mortgage rates doesn’t exist. And getting caught up in the hype and uncertainty surrounding the future of rates is dangerous. When you buy your first home, aim for a reasonable degree of certainty regarding the people in your life and your housing needs; otherwise, you will end up having to sell sooner than you had planned and perhaps in unfavourable market conditions, costing yourself tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars.”

While not all asset classes experienced yearly gains, both the detached and semi-detached markets in the GTA saw price appreciation. In the detached market, average sales prices saw an increase of $8,980, resulting in an average sales price of $1,350,828. Although the price increase was nominal compared to the previous year, there are strong indications that buyers are becoming more active. Sales increased by 26% annually, totalling 1,745 sales during the month. However, inventory for detached properties experienced an 8.7% decline compared to January 2023, with active listings totalling just 3,589.

The semi-detached market, on the other hand saw an average sales price of $1,038,303 in January, indicating an $18,635 yearly increase. This price increase was supported by a 42.9% yearly increase in total sales. Similar to the detached market, the semi-detached inventory started the year with a 21% decrease compared to January 2023. The ongoing inventory shortage that characterized the GTA throughout 2023 continued into the first month of 2024. Nevertheless, the strong sales environment is expected to drive price gains as competition among buyers intensifies once again.

The GTA condo market experienced a 40.5% increase in total sales, while the yearly sales price saw a modest decline of less than 1%.  The strong increase in sales activity suggests that price increases are likely in the near future. Similarly, the townhouse segment of the market saw a 59.5% yearly sales increase, totalling 442 transactions. With only 539 active listings to end the month, the limited availability of properties is likely to drive prices higher.

“We had a positive start to 2024. The Bank of Canada expects the rate of inflation to recede as we move through the year. This would support lower interest rates which would bolster home buyers' confidence to move back into the market. First-time buyers currently facing high average rents would benefit from lower mortgage rates, making the move to homeownership more affordable,” said TRREB President Jennifer Pearce.

The renewed market strength projected for the latter half of the year seems to be gaining traction earlier than expected. In light of this, both buyers and sellers should be prepared to make informed decisions as the market continues to unfold.

If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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GTA Real Estate 2023: A Resilient Journey and the Return of Optimism

GTA Real Estate 2023: A Resilient Journey and the Return of Optimism

The GTA housing market experienced some turbulence throughout 2023; however, its enduring resilience remains the standout feature. Commencing the year with an average sales price of $1,038,668, properties saw a remarkable 15% surge by May, reaching an average sale price of $1,196,101. The latter half of the year witnessed a surge in inventory, peaking at 19,540 properties in October. The increase in inventory, paired with two additional interest rate increases in early summer dampened the increase in property values, however homes in the GTA were, on average, worth more in December 2023 than they were at the beginning of 2023, with an average sales price of $1,084,692. However, sales faced challenges, with 66,252 total properties sold in 2023, representing a 28% decrease compared to the previous five-year average.  Sales will not remain as subdued in 2024.  As we move through the year, we anticipate higher sales volume and more competition returning to the market.  

“Buyers who were active in the market benefitted from more choice throughout 2023. This allowed many of these buyers to negotiate lower selling prices, alleviating some of the impact of higher borrowing costs. Assuming borrowing costs trend lower this year, look for tighter market conditions to prompt renewed price growth in the months ahead,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Mortgage rates were a focal point in 2023, and anticipation for 2024 revolves around potential interest rate decreases. Once rates do begin to wane values are likely to escalate as Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper recently highlighted. “We see 2024 as an important tipping point for the national economy as the majority of Canadians acknowledge that the ultra-low interest rate era is dead and gone,” “We believe that the ‘great adjustment’ to tolerable, mid-single-digit borrowing costs will have a firm grip on our collective consciousness after only modest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.”  What does this mean for property values throughout 2024? Phil Soper spoke to that as well. “Based on this forecast, by the end of next year, home prices will have essentially climbed back to their pandemic peak, reached in the first quarter of 2022,” he said. 

As 2024 exhibits renewed optimism, let's recap the performance of individual asset classes in 2023. The Detached segment led the way, starting with an average sales price of $1,314,848 and achieving a robust 16% increase in May, concluding the year with an average sales price of $1,418,323—a  5.69% gain.

The townhouse market secured the second spot, commencing the year at an average sale price of $976,500. A 14.45% surge in May led values to a yearly high of $1,117,696. As the year progressed values compressed and resulted in a year-end sale price of $996,162, reflecting a 2% gain.

The semi-detached asset class claimed the third position, starting the year at an average sales price of $1,019,668. With a high-water price of $1,214,872 in June, values finished the year at $1,027,432, representing just under a 1% gain over the year.

Conversely, the condo asset class is the only segment to slightly drop in value during the year. January began with values of $687,696. Despite an 8.8% increase to $748,483 during May, the year concluded with an average of $682,525, marking a loss of 0.75% in 2023 and marking an excellent opportunity, particularly for first-time buyers, to enter the market while price points are stable and inventory is available. 

The resilience of the market was evident throughout 2023 and the forecast for 2024 is a clear indicator that demand for housing is not waning. A recent article in the Toronto Star  succinctly summarizes the current state of the market.  "Real estate is cyclical and we've hit the lowest point in the fourth quarter of 2023 in terms of sales activity and prices,”."There's going to be a tipping point next year during the spring from all this pent up demand and strong indication from the Bank of Canada that it will begin to cut rates."

In conclusion, the GTA housing market weathered the uncertainty of 2023 with unwavering resilience. Moving into 2024, there are positive indicators for recovery and growth, and greater confidence in the potential for a robust comeback. The cyclical nature of real estate, coupled with anticipated rate cuts and pent-up demand, positions the market for a spring resurgence. 

If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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Unpacking the GTA Real Estate Puzzle: Challenges, Opportunities, and the Future Landscape

As November concluded, the aggregate value of a GTA home remains at $1,082,179, mirroring last year's figures. Despite an initial surge in the first half of the year, mid-year interest rate increases led to a temporary dip in home sale prices, marking the second-lowest point for home values in the year.

The surge in inventory appears to have slowed, possibly due to winter seasonality or subdued buyer and seller activity amid heightened borrowing costs. November's total inventory reached 16,759 active listings, showing a monthly decrease of 2,781 but a year-over-year rise of 4,849 available properties for sale.

As economists commence speculating on potential interest rate cuts, possibly as early as next spring, discussions about when the market might reclaim its previously robust momentum have initiated. This concept is underscored in a recent article featured in the Globe and Mail. “Bay Street prognosticators are currently pricing in a full percentage point of rate cuts next year as Canada flirts with recession. Home prices have much precedent for rising during recessions, by the way. That’s because homebuyer incomes don’t dive all that much and buying power rises as rates drop. But consider this: If average mortgage rates fell merely one percentage point, all it would take to cancel out that nationwide affordability improvement would be a $63,000 bounce in the $656,625 price of an average home. 

That kind of gain can happen in two months, as it did last spring. It was only 10 months ago when the Bank of Canada’s premature rate pause inspired homebuying enough to drive prices $74,167 higher in two months and $116,840 (19 per cent) higher in just four months. Part of that rise was because of a change in the types of homes purchased – what economists call the “composition effect” – but the point remains: low rates and low prices attract high demand.”

With stagnate sale prices and anticipated rate cuts, the current market offers buyers potentially the most favourable conditions in years. However, the likelihood of this opportune period lasting for an extended duration appears low.

Examining individual asset classes, the semi-detached market remains stalwart in price stability, maintaining a sales price within a $42,000 band since July. November's average sales price of $1,060,829 reflects a 2% yearly gain, with a notable 4.66% increase in sales compared to November 2022, the only asset class experiencing yearly gains in sales.

In the GTA detached segment, monthly losses led to an average sales price of $1,403,500, still $61,652 above the lows of January. For the first time in 2023, inventory declined to 6,834, a 20% decrease from October. While the sales environment remained cautious, completing 1,881 sales marked a 42% decrease from the seasonal average over the preceding ten years.

The Condo asset class remains the most active, with a 50% yearly increase in inventory, ending the month with 6,579 units for sale. However, with 1,212 sales in the month, the lowest total since January, values remain flat on a yearly comparison.

In recent news, the spotlight has been on the looming cliff of over 2 million mortgage renewals across Canada. A recent announcement from Chrystia Freeland brings relief to those potentially impacted by the higher interest rate environment. Under the Canadian Mortgage Charter, lenders will have to contact homeowners four to six months in advance of their mortgage renewal to inform them of their renewal options, which must include the ability to make lump sum payments to avoid negative amortization and the option to sell their principal residence without a prepayment penalties. Lenders will also be required to offer temporary extensions of amortization periods for mortgagors at risk and to waive any fees and costs for doing so. In addition, banks won’t be able to charge “interest on interest” if a borrower is temporarily in a period of negative amortization, which means they are covering just the interest without paying down any principal.

For homeowners, delaying the search for the perfect deal may have repercussions. The prevailing wisdom suggests the time to buy is when a suitable property is found that fits one's needs and affordability. With factors like immigration, housing supply constraints, and potential lower interest rates, the current period could be viewed as an opportune time to buy, with less competition compared to what may transpire in 2024.

Should buyers be holding out for real estate bargains?

Tens of thousands of Canadians are camping out for real estate discounts. Armed with prayers and

price drop forecasts from economists, they’re waiting for the housing market to slap big red “On

Sale” signs on front lawns this winter. What’s more, two-thirds of prospective buyers said they’re holding their breath for lower mortgage rates before pulling the trigger, according to a BMO survey conducted last spring.

So, let’s paint this picture. We’ve got latent demand from all these sidelined homebuyers waiting for lower prices and rates – a Goldilocks dream in one of Earth’s most expensive housing regions. Meanwhile, housing inventories remain low, population growth is excessive, incomes are growing faster than inflation, rents are soaring (which increases homebuying’s appeal on a relative basis), and our government is dead set on keeping hard-up mortgagors in their homes through policies that encourage banks to work with borrowers who bit off more mortgage than they can chew.

Add lower prices and rates to this soap opera, and you may have everyone with a down payment

thinking it’s Black Friday for real estate, sprinting to capture fleeting “affordability” improvements. History has proven that time and again. But consider this: If average mortgage rates fell merely one percentage point, all it would take to cancel out that nationwide affordability improvement would be a $63,000 bounce in the $656,625price of an average home.

That kind of gain can happen in two months, as it did last spring. It was only 10 months ago when the Bank of Canada’s premature rate pause inspired homebuying enough to drive prices $74,167 higher in two months and $116,840 (19 per cent) higher in just four months. Part of that rise was because of a change in the types of homes purchased – what economists call the “composition effect” – but the point remains: low rates and low prices attract high demand.

This isn’t a new phenomenon. Canada saw similar bounces in 2001, 2009 and 2020. READ MORE

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If you would like to understand how these statistics relate to your specific situation or if you're curious about the current value of your property or your affordability for a new purchase, please don't hesitate to reach out.

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Sales Volume Down But Prices Remain Steady

Sales Volume Down But Prices Remain Steady

GTA Market Analysis – October 2023
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market stands strong even in the face of challenging economic conditions. Over the past few months, there has been an uptick in home values, with a cumulative increase of $43,432, and a second consecutive monthly rise of $6,500. This puts the average GTA home price at $1,125,928, reflecting a year-over-year increase of $36,500. Among the various housing segments, the detached category continues to show strength, with a monthly increase of $9,326 and a year-over-year gain of $77,674. 

While prices have not increased as much as they did earlier in 2023 and remain lower than the peak of March 2022, the resilience of the GTA market offers confidence to both prospective homebuyers and investors. It appears that the GTA housing market remains highly attractive and is resilient to the prevailing economic challenges.

“Competition between buyers remained strong enough to keep the average selling price above last year’s level in October and above the cyclical lows experienced in the first quarter of this year. The Bank of Canada also noted this resilience in its October statement. However, home prices remain well-below their record peak reached at the beginning of 2022, so lower home prices have mitigated the impact of higher borrowing costs to a certain degree,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

The stability of the housing market was highlighted in the recent release from the Bank of Canada. “Normally, house prices move pretty lockstep with interest-rate increases,” Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said at a news conference Wednesday, where she was discussing the bank’s decision not to hike its rate further. “As interest rates come down, house prices go up a bit. And they’ll come off as interest rates come back up,” she said.

“We’re not seeing the decline in house prices that we would expect,” she continued, adding that there is a “structural lack of supply” of housing in Canada, and that until it is fixed, “interest rates on their own are not going to help us get back to a housing affordability situation or solution.”

One of the primary hurdles for potential homebuyers continues to be the structural lack of housing supply. However, there is some relief on the horizon as inventory levels have shown improvement, reaching 19,540 active listings in October, the highest since June 2019.  With more properties available on the market and a moderating demand due to high borrowing costs resulting in slower sales, the housing market is transitioning to a more balanced state.  In October, the number of home sales remained relatively subdued, with 4,646 transactions occurring.  Notably, the sales figures for detached and semi-detached homes saw a modest uptick of 0.37% and a more substantial increase of 6.47%, respectively, while the condo and townhouse segments experienced slight declines of 0.84% and 3.83%.

While more inventory for buyers to choose from is a welcome relief for homebuyers, some have questioned whether more homes available for sale are a sign of distressed homeowners, unable to meet their mortgage commitments.  Recent research from Royal LePage suggests that while higher interest rates are stressful for Canadians, the number of people who are missing mortgage payments remains at historical lows.  In fact, only 15 out of every 10,000 mortgages in Canada are in arrears for more than ninety days. 

With more inventory available than in previous years, this fall and winter may be an excellent opportunity for prepared and qualified buyers to make their move.  Economic data indicates that the Canadian economy is contracting and that inflation, while still higher than the Bank of Canada's target, has also slowed in recent months.  These factors reduce the likelihood that the Bank of Canada will raise rates again in the coming months, and we may even see an interest rate decrease in 2024.  A stable or slightly lower interest rate environment will compel buyers to move off the sidelines, driving up competition for homes once again.  As such, we may look back on the next six months as having been the best opportunity for homebuyers looking for more choice with less competition to have entered or moved up in the market.

Bank of Canada says it is not seeing the decline in house prices it had expected

The Bank of Canada says higher interest rates have not dragged down home prices as much as expected, because a shortage of homes in the country is keeping values elevated. The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged Wednesday at 5 per cent – up from just 0.25 per cent in March, 2022, when the bank began a series of rapid rate hikes intended to bring inflation under control. Over that same period, the typical price of a home across the country has fallen 13 per cent, a modest decline considering the sharp increase in borrowing costs.

“Normally, house prices move pretty lockstep with interest-rate increases,” Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said at a news conference Wednesday, where she was discussing the bank’s decision not to hike its rate further. “As interest rates come down, house prices go up a bit. And they’ll come off as interest rates come back up,” she said.

“We’re not seeing the decline in house prices that we would expect,” she continued, adding that there is a “structural lack of supply” of housing in Canada, and that until it is fixed, “interest rates on their own are not going to help us get back to a housing affordability situation or solution.” READ MORE

Survey suggests majority of Ontario mortgage holders concerned about upcoming renewals

A new survey suggests that a majority of Ontarians who will be renewing their mortgages in the next 18 months are worried about costs going up. The Royal LePage survey conducted by Nanos found that 21 per cent of respondents in Ontario will be renewing lease agreements within the next year and another 15 per cent will be up for renewal 12 to 18 months from now. Of those, 74 per cent are worried about it, given the series of rate hikes from the Bank of Canada.

The survey was conducted before the Bank of Canada's announcement on Wednesday that it would hold its key interest rate at 5 per cent after several rate increases since March 2022, when the overnight lending rate was 0.25 per cent. Of those concerned about renewing, more than a quarter of respondents said they have considered either extending the amortization period (28 per cent) or switching lenders (27 per cent). Twenty per cent said they might extend their mortgage term, while 16 per cent said they are considering reducing the next term. Fifteen per cent might switch to a fixed-rate mortgage and 16 per cent said they might switch to a variable rate mortgage. FULL ARTICLE HERE

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