2026 Toronto Housing Forecast: A Softer Market And What It Really Means For Buyers And Sellers
If you’ve been trying to understand the 2026 Toronto housing forecast, you’re not alone.
The Toronto housing market in 2026 looks and feels very different from the frantic years we’ve just come through: prices have softened, mortgage rates in Canada have stabilized, and the GTA real estate market has shifted from high-speed bidding wars to slower, more thoughtful decisions.
Royal LePage’s latest market forecast and Phil Soper’s housing outlook both point to a softer year ahead for Toronto home prices, especially in the condo segment, and a more balanced landscape for serious buyers and sellers. In this article, I’m breaking down what 2026 actually means for Toronto condo market buyers, Toronto detached home owners, and anyone trying to decide whether to move, wait or reposition their next step.
Canada in 2026: The “Reset” Year
Nationally, the 2026 Royal LePage market forecast is calling for very modest price growth.
Aggregate home prices across the Ontario real estate market and the rest of Canada are expected to move only slightly, with single-family homes edging up a bit and condos easing back.
In simple terms:
Prices are not surging.
Detached homes are expected to be relatively stable.
Condos are the weak spot in many major cities.
At the same time, mortgage rates in Canada in 2026 are no longer in “crisis” territory. After a long cycle of rate hikes and then cuts, borrowing costs have settled into a more normal range that supports steady activity instead of speculative frenzy.
On December 10, 2025, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.5%, deposit rate 2.2%). The economy is growing modestly, unemployment has eased, and inflation is sitting close to the 2% target. In plain language: the Bank sees the current rate as the “right level” and isn’t in a hurry to move it, which supports the idea that 2026 is a year of stability, not shock moves.
Soper’s core message is clear: “the math now works again, but many people are still mentally stuck in the volatility of the last few years. The headlines have calmed down, yet a lot of buyers are still waiting for the next shock”.
2026 Toronto Housing Forecast: What The Numbers Say
Royal LePage’s 2026 Toronto housing forecast is calling for modest price declines in the GTA, not a crash.
By the end of 2026, they expect:
The aggregate price of a home in the GTA to be down about 4–5% year-over-year, to roughly $1.05M.
Toronto detached homes to slip only slightly, about –1%, to around $1.38M.
The Toronto condo market to feel the most pressure, with prices down roughly 6.5%, to about $616K.
This is the shape of the Toronto housing market 2026: a quieter, more negotiated environment where pricing bends but does not break.
The fall market has already been described as “more of a whisper than a roar.” Serious Toronto real estate buyers are out there, but they’re cautious and deliberate. Economic uncertainty, job security, and questions about future commute patterns are all contributing to slower decisions.
Toronto Housing Market 2026: A Smarter Buyer’s Market
From a buyer’s perspective, the Toronto housing market in 2026 may be the most balanced environment we’ve seen in years.
We’re not in a crash; we’re in a calmer, more rational phase that leans toward a buyer’s market in many pockets of the GTA real estate market.
For Toronto real estate buyers, this means:
More inventory and better selection.
Fewer extreme bidding wars.
More time to compare, inspect and negotiate.
Instead of making life-changing decisions in a 15-minute showing window, buyers can actually work through the numbers under today’s mortgage rates in Canada and choose a home that fits their life for the next 5–7 years.
The key questions now are practical:
Can I comfortably carry this payment at 2026 mortgage rates?
Does this home work for my life beyond the next year or two?
Am I willing to act while others are still sitting on the fence?
Real estate has always rewarded participation, not hesitation. 2026 gives buyers space to participate with more clarity and less panic.
Condos vs Houses: Two Different 2026 Stories
The 2026 Toronto condo market and the 2026 Toronto detached home market are moving on slightly different tracks.
Condos are seeing more pricing pressure, especially investor-owned units in buildings with higher carrying costs. That’s where softer Toronto home prices will be most visible. For end-user buyers, this creates real opportunity to step into the condo market in locations that were previously out of reach.
Detached homes, particularly in established neighbourhoods, are expected to hold value more steadily. Well-presented, well-priced houses still sell; the difference is that the pace is calmer and buyers have more negotiating power.
For Toronto real estate sellers, this means:
You cannot rely on “test the market” pricing.
Strategy, preparation and honest positioning matter more than ever.
The gap between well-priced and wishfully-priced listings is widening.
For Toronto real estate buyers, this means there are very real opportunities in both condos and houses if you know how to read the segment you’re entering.
Toronto West End & Etobicoke: Where I Work
My practice is rooted in Toronto’s west end and Etobicoke — High Park, Bloor West Village, The Junction, Swansea, The Kingsway, and the many communities across Etobicoke. I help buyers and sellers with both freehold homes and condos throughout these areas.
These are well-established, community-based neighbourhoods with strong long-term fundamentals: mature streets, transit access, parks, schools and a real sense of place. Even as the broader GTA real estate market cools, demand for quality homes in well-established neighbourhoods, especially well-maintained houses and family-sized condos, remains steady.
In 2026, I expect:
West-end detached homes to see mild price adjustments rather than deep drops.
Family-sized condos and townhouses in good buildings to stay in demand when they’re priced realistically.
More conditional offers, more negotiation, and fewer “sell in a day” stories.
This is a year where local knowledge matters. Street-by-street and building-by-building insights are more important than broad headlines.
What This Means If You’re Thinking Of Selling
For Toronto real estate sellers, 2026 is a truth-telling year.
Yes, prices in the GTA are forecast to be lower than last year on average. That can feel like “bad news” if you’re anchored to the peak. But the reality depends on your specific situation:
If you’ve owned your home for several years, you likely still have substantial equity.
If you’re a move-up seller, selling and buying in the same softer market can actually work in your favour.
If you’re overleveraged on an investment unit, this is the year to get extremely strategic.
Your question is no longer “Can I get last year’s price?”
The better questions are: “What outcome supports my next chapter?” and “How do I position my property properly in this buyer-leaning Toronto housing market 2026?”
This is where accurate pricing, strong presentation and clear strategy become non-negotiable.
What This Means If You’re Thinking Of Buying
For Toronto real estate buyers, 2026 offers something we haven’t seen in a while: room to breathe.
A softer buyer’s market in parts of Toronto means:
You can place conditions without being immediately pushed aside.
You can compare options across neighbourhoods and segments.
You can think in terms of long-term fit, not short-term fear of missing out.
Whether you’re entering the Toronto condo market for the first time, moving into a larger space, or looking at Toronto detached homes in the west end, the opportunity in 2026 is to make a well-considered move while others are still paralyzed by yesterday’s headlines.
My Take, As A Toronto Broker
I’m a broker working primarily in Toronto’s west end. I watch the GTA real estate market daily, and I have a simple commitment: I will not tell you “it’s always a great time to buy or sell.”
Instead, I look at the 2026 Toronto housing forecast, the real-time data on your street, your numbers, and your nervous system.
Sometimes that will mean “yes, this is the right window.”
Sometimes it will mean “wait, reposition, or adjust the plan.”
Either way, you deserve clear, grounded insight.
Thinking About A Move In 2026?
If you’re:
Unsure whether to buy now or wait another year
Debating selling a condo, house, or investment property
Trying to make sense of what this forecast means for your specific home and mortgage
Let’s talk.
We’ll walk through your situation using the Royal LePage market forecast and Phil Soper housing outlook as the backdrop, then zoom into your property, your area, and your goals.
No pressure, no hype. Just clarity and a plan.
Sources: Royal LePage 2026 Market Survey Forecast and “Today’s housing math works. Buyers just need to believe it”, Royal LePage / Real Estate Magazine.