Stable Prices, Low Inventory, Fewer Transactions

GTA Real Estate Remains in a Holding Pattern for Fourth Consecutive Month 

GTA Market Activity – November 2022

While typically a quiet month of market activity based on seasonal patterns, November home sale and new listing totals lagged below the Greater Toronto Area’s long-term averages. 

Average months of available inventory have plateaued since the summer, with only 2.3 months of inventory currently available for sale.  With a low number of homes for sale in the region, sale prices remain stable at an average of just under $1.1m, a number that has remained relatively unchanged since August of 2022. 

Prices in the GTA peaked in the first quarter of 2022.  While the gap between year-over-year price comparisons will be more pronounced in the coming months, the month-over-month price trend has stabilized. 

“Selling prices declined from the early year peak as market conditions became more balanced and homebuyers have sought to mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs. With that being said, the marked downward price trend experienced in the spring has come to an end. Selling prices have flatlined alongside average monthly mortgage payments since the summer,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Homes for sale continue to sell quickly, averaging 22 days on market, the same average we have seen for the past four months. 

Inventory Remains an Issue

The current pace of listings and available inventory remain tight, especially in light of factors that generate housing demand, such as high employment rates, continued immigration to the province and changes to household formation patterns for Canadians.  With the recently announced increase in federal immigration targets, the GTA remains susceptible to a renewed surge in demand and accompanying upward pressure on pricing.  

“Increased borrowing costs represent a short-term shock to the housing market. Over the medium- to long-term, the demand for ownership housing will pick up strongly. This is because a huge share of record immigration will be pointed at the GTA and the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) in the coming years, and all of these people will require a place to live, with the majority looking to buy. The long-term problem for policymakers will not be inflation and borrowing costs, but rather ensuring we have enough housing to accommodate population growth,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

While efforts are underway to increase housing supply in the region, interest rates, labour costs and a labour shortage are creating a challenging environment for developers.  Even under favourable conditions, it would be difficult at best to build at a pace to meeting population growth demand. 

“We have seen a lot of progress this year on the housing supply and related governance files such as the More Homes Built Faster Act. This is obviously good news. However, we need these new policies to turn into results over the next year. Otherwise, the current market lull will soon be behind us, population growth will be accelerating, and we will have done nothing to account for our growing housing need. The result would be enhanced unaffordability and reduced economic competitiveness,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Interest Rates Anticipated to Rise at a Slower Pace

At the time of writing, it is widely anticipated that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again on December 7th by 25 or 50 basis points.  This increase will mark the seventh increase in 2022, however the Bank has recently signaled that this rate hike cycle is nearing its end.  

Employment in Canada in November showed that our labour market remains tight, while our gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.9% in the third quarter, higher than the 1.5% that was forecasted, but lower than previous quarters.  The details of the GDP data also show a contraction in domestic demand, and no growth in October, signs that higher borrowing costs are beginning to have the desired impact on economic activity. 

Looking Ahead

Following the price declines seen following initial rate hikes starting in March 2022, prices in the GTA have stabilized over the last several months, indicating that most of the price declines anticipated in this rate hike cycle are behind us.  While inventory remains low and prices relatively stable, RBC predicts that rising interest rates will keep market activity quiet into early 2023. Following a period of stable interest rates, it is anticipated that market activity will return to more seasonal norms.  The impact of additional demand on already tight supply will create a more competitive environment for buyers and sellers than we expect to see over the winter months. 

If you would like to find out what these statistics mean to you, or if you are curious to know how much your property is worth today or how much you can afford to buy, please reach out. 

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GTA Market Remains Resilient As Prices Level Off For The Third Straight Month

The GTA Market Remains Resilient as Prices Level Off for Third Straight Month

GTA Market Activity – October 2022

October marks the third straight month prices have held steady in the GTA, after values retreated following interest rate increases in the spring and early summer.  The average price of a home in the GTA is just under $1.1 million, up 1% since August of this year.   

One of the drivers behind this resiliency is persistent low inventory.  Current sales activity is similar to what we saw in the GTA in October 2008, however, available inventory is around half of what was for sale at that same time.  New listings in October were down by 11.6% year-over-year and reached a level not seen since 2010.   

According to TRREB President, Kevin Crigger, “With new listings at or near historic lows, a moderate uptick in demand from current levels would result in a noticeable tightening in the resale housing market in short order. Obviously, there is still a lot of short-term economic uncertainty. In the medium-to-long-term, however, the demand for housing will rebound.”

GTA Prices Hold Despite Interest Rate Pressures 

Just how resilient is the current GTA housing market?  Despite the rapid pace of six interest rate hikes this year, the benchmark home price is only 1.3% lower than it was a year ago.  At that time, The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate was 3.5% lower than it is now.  

“Home prices in the GTA have found support in recent months because price declines in the spring and summer mitigated the impact of higher borrowing costs on average monthly mortgage payments. The Bank of Canada’s most recent messaging suggests that they are reaching the end of their tightening cycle.” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Toronto’s Core Outperforms

An interesting trend has emerged in Toronto’s core over the past three months, as median prices excluding Toronto’s immediate suburbs have climbed approximately 14% in this period. Low inventory, consumers taking advantage of lower prices to move up in to freehold homes, combined with a return to the office and renewed vibrancy in the downtown core is driving competition and increased prices in this area of the GTA. 

Rental Rates Rise Dramatically

Rents in the City of Toronto and surrounding areas continue to climb, with increases of over 27% year-over-year for both one and two bedroom units.  Investors in Toronto and Vancouver saw rental rates nosedive during the pandemic however, since then rents have rebounded dramatically, up almost 46% in Toronto and 54% in Vancouver from pandemic lows. 

Pressures on Supply Will Continue

The current supply of homes available to buy or rent is not keeping up with demand from our growing population.  

The federal government has unveiled new plans for an increase in the number of immigrants entering Canada, with a goal of seeing 500,000 people arrive each year by 2025 in order to address the labour shortage affecting the country. That is up from the government’s original target of approximately 400,000 newcomers each year. 

While alleviating Canada’s labour shortage is critical, an influx of people, particularly to our major urban centres, will put additional pressure on our already scarce housing supply.  When housing supply is strained, home prices rise.  

Ontario Aims to Build 1.5 Million Homes over Ten Years

The Ontario government has unveiled a series of new measures aimed at tackling the province’s housing supply shortage and affordability issues, including plans to cut development costs and to allow property owners to build up to three residential units on a single lot without a bylaw amendment.

The province also proposes to freeze, reduce and exempt fees associated with new home construction in order to spur building. Affordable housing, non-profit housing and inclusionary zoning units would be exempt from various charges.  Rental builders would also see development charges reduced, with larger discounts on family-sized units.

Ontario's move to reduce the red tape and fees associated with the development of housing is a positive step towards alleviating the chronic supply issues plaguing the province.  

If you would like to find out what these statistics mean to you, or if you are curious to know how much your property is worth today or how much you can afford to buy, please reach out. 

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GTA Home Prices Remain Stable as Inventory Falls Short of Demand

GTA Market Activity – September 2022

In September, GTA buyers were faced with significantly lower inventory than might be anticipated in an early fall market.  New listings in September were down 16.7% year-over-year, the lowest number of new listings reported for the month of September since 2002.  With fewer homes to choose from, multiple offer scenarios were once again commonplace across the GTA last month. 

Average prices in the GTA this September were higher than they were in August, despite inflation and increased borrowing costs.  The average price of a home in the GTA is now $1,086,762.  This is 4.3% lower than the average price seen in September 2021, however benchmark home prices remain 4.3% higher than they were a year ago. 

Overall, GTA prices have stabilized as compared to the spring months where we saw some price declines.  In fact, a number of GTA neighbourhoods, prices have increased significantly over the past two months due to increased competition and lack of inventory.  

While the median price of a home in the GTA is about the same as it was last year, the cost to rent a home in the GTA has skyrocketed in the same period. Median rental costs are up approximately $500 per month since September 2021 to just under $3,000 per month, creating new opportunities for investors who may have been concerned about carrying costs when interest rates started climbing.  First- time buyers should also assess whether the cost of renting makes sense given current rental rates and inventory, as compared to purchasing a home. 

September sales volume remained well below what we saw last year at the same time.   September 2022 saw 5,038 sales, which is 44.1% lower than September 2021.  September also saw less homes sold than August, when typically the start of fall would drive more home sales.

When sales activity is below average, the issue of supply tends to take a backseat. However, when sales activity returns to normal levels, the issue of supply will once again create pain for buyers looking for the opportunity to enter or move up in the market. Statistics Canada recently released a report showing Canada’s population has recently been growing at almost double the rate of the rest of the G7, and that trend is expected to accelerate. Simply put, our current infrastructure and housing supply is inadequate to support this level of growth, which long term, will continue putting pressure on prices and create scenarios where those qualified and looking to purchase a home will be forced to compete with others for a limited inventory of available properties.

If you would like to find out what these statistics mean to you, or if you are curious to know how much your property is worth today or how much you can afford to buy, please reach out. 

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Prices Stabilize, A Long Term Supply Crisis Looms & An Affordability Analysis Which Might Surprise You

GTA Market Activity - August 2022

In August, sales activity volume remained below average. 5,627 homes were sold in the GTA in August, which is a 20-year sales volume low and 34.2% lower than last August, but represented 15% more sales than we saw in July, a jump which is atypical for this time of year and may signal an early start to the fall market.

Prices stabilized this month, and the average selling price was $1,079,500, 0.9% higher than last August and benchmark home prices remain 8.9% higher than they were a year ago.

While monthly fluctuations help us interpret market trends, it is important to remember that while the stock market sees values fluctuate on a daily basis, real estate is a long-term investment with returns more accurately calculated year-over-year.

Months of inventory is trending down again after increasing the past few months. Typically, when inventory climbs, that signals a cooling of the market and house prices. When inventory declines, the market becomes more competitive, and prices tend to increase. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, “If this trend continues, it could indicate some support for selling prices in the months ahead.”

As more buyers return to the fall market in the coming weeks, the lack of inventory may create a more competitive environment than we anticipated.

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Costs Associated with Home Purchases Improve Despite Higher Interest Rates

Much has been said in the media about the impact of interest rates on affordability for homeowners. While interest rates have been increasing since spring 2022, home prices have also moderated during this same period, creating an offset that actually decreases purchase costs and in some cases, monthly carry costs. Let’s look at an example:

A detached home in the GTA is sold for $1.5M in January 2022. Over the summer, the same home sells for approximately 20% less. At the time of purchase, the buyer saves nearly $70,000 on their 20% down payment, and $6,740 in Land Transfer Tax ($13,480 if the property is in Toronto).

Now, let’s look at the mortgage costs. The buyer purchased for $1.5M and obtains a mortgage of $1.2M at 2.79%, resulting in monthly payments of $5,550. In the summer, the buyer purchases for $1.16M, and obtains a mortgage for $930k at 5.09% resulting in monthly payments of $5,460.

Despite higher interest rates, the upfront costs to purchase the home are significantly lower, and the monthly carry costs are slightly lower than in January 2022.

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Detached Home Purchase / Mortgage Rate Increase Cost Analysis

Although mortgage rates have risen over the past six months, the costs associated with purchasing a home have decreased.

Population Growth and Household Formation Will Drive Long Term Supply Issues

This month, new projections were released from Statistics Canada outlining that Ontario’s population will grow from 14.8 million to approximately 19 million by 2043 in a medium growth scenario and could even surpass 21 million in a higher growth scenario. The new projections exceed every province in Canada other than British Columbia and Alberta.

The reasons behind the province’s explosive growth are two-fold. First, immigration. According to RBC, over the past ten years, Canada’s population has grown over twice as fast as the average of its peer countries in the OECD. The Federal government’s target is to bring in a record 1.3 million new permanent residents by 2024 and that should add 555,000 new households.

There is another trend in our society that RBC economists say is often overlooked: the size of Canadian households is shrinking. A growing share of young Canadians are also opting to live alone, and are starting their families later. On the other side of the spectrum, older Canadians are living longer than prior generations, and many will stay in their homes for longer.

Canada’s surge in immigration, combined with shrinking household sizes, will strengthen demand for housing on a long-term basis. As these forces gain strength, over 700,000 more households will be formed in Canada by 2024 as compared to 2021.

As our population booms, governments need to play catch up on building the necessary infrastructure to accommodate newcomers and new households.

This month, Toronto released a five-point plan to create more housing and address affordability challenges in the city.

The plan consists of five pillars:

• Expanding housing options by permitting “missing middle” housing

• Cutting red tape and speeding up approval times by creating a Development and Growth Division

• Asking the province to allow the city to enact a “use it or lose it” policy for developers sitting on approved, but undeveloped, land

• Allocating a portion of city-owned land to be developed by non-profits

• Incentivizing the construction of purpose-built rental housing by reducing fees and charges

Provincially, the Ontario government has vowed to tackle the housing crisis by building 1.5M new homes over the next decade.

The average selling price was $1,079,500 as compared to $1,074,754 the previous month. The average price is slightly above last year’s average of $1,070,201.

The average number of listing days on the market was 22, up from 16 in July 2022. Total active listings were up 62.3% year-over-year, and new listings were down 0.7% year-over-year, from 10,615 in August 2021 to 10,537 in August 2022.

Benchmark price by home type (all TRREB reporting areas):

• The benchmark price for detached homes was $1,414.000, 6.45% higher than in August 2021.

• The benchmark price for attached homes was $1,079.000, 8.38% higher than August 2021.

• The benchmark price for townhouse homes was $838,300, 11.79% higher than August 2021.

• The benchmark price for condo apartments was $739,000, 17.87% higher than August 2021.

Average price by home type (416 and 905):

• The average price for detached homes was $1,379,700, 3.1% lower than in August 2021.

• The average price for semi-detached homes was $998,490, 3.4% lower than in August 2021.

• The average price for townhouse homes was $900,307, 2.9% higher than August 2021.

• The average price for condo apartments was $711,321, 3.6% higher than August 2021.

All stats are provided by Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.

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Proof Point: Demographics a powerful counterforce in Canada’s housing market correction

AUGUST 2022

It’s not just immigration: shrinking households will drive housing demand Canada is in the midst of a steep housing correction. And though this cycle has yet to fully play out, it’s unlikely to morph into the type of prolonged spiral observed in the U.S. during the 2008 financial crisis. One of the main reasons: demographic demand for housing in Canada is strong—and it’s getting even stronger.

We expect the number of Canadian households to rise by 730,000 by 2024 compared to 2021, adding 240,000 new households annually. Immigration is key to this surge: Ottawa’s targets are set to bring in a record 1.3 million new permanent residents, adding 555,000 new households by 2024.

But another critical factor is the often overlooked, longstanding impact of demographic change, including households that have been getting smaller for decades. Even a relatively small decline in average household size has a big impact on the number of new housing units required to shelter Canadians. For example, over the five years leading up to 2021, the average household size declined by 0.02 people. That was enough to raise the total number of households by 140,000 (or close to 30,000 a year). This trend will be responsible for just under 90,000 of the 730,000 new households created by 2024—and will provide a significant boost in housing demand.

HOUSEHOLD SIZE HAS BEEN SHRINKING FOR DECADES

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Tory announces 5-point plan to build homes faster, tackle affordability in Toronto

Toronto mayoral candidate John Tory has released a five-point plan to create more housing and address affordability challenges in the city.

Tory, who is seeking a third term, announced his first campaign policy about housing Tuesday morning, ahead of the municipal election in October.

“ I believe we need to get more housing built, we need to get more affordable and supportive housing built and we need to have housing that is obtainable for middle class Torontonians,” Tory told reporters while at a housing construction site in Toronto's Distillery District.

Toronto Mayor John Tory speaks during a press conference to update media on a tentative deal reached between the City of Toronto and the city's outside workers, in Toronto, Saturday, Feb 29, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Cole Burston

Tory’s plan consists of five pillars:

• Expanding housing options by permitting “missing middle” housing

• Cutting red tape and speeding up approval times by creating a Development and Growth Division

• Asking the province to allow the city to enact a “use it or lose it” policy for developers sitting on approved, but undeveloped, land

• Allocating a portion of city-owned land to be developed by non-profits

• Incentivizing the construction of purpose-built rental housing by reducing fees and charges

Tory says expanding “missing middle” housing will include legalizing laneway suites and garden suites, and exempting developments of four units or less from development charges.

“We also need to include the option to create duplexes, triplexes, as well as the kind of walk-up apartment buildings found in many pre-war neighbourhoods,” Tory said.

To speed up building approval times, Tory’s proposed Development and Growth Division would act as a “one-stop shop” to handle all aspects of development review and streamline the approval process. Tory said the division would also prioritize and fast-track the approval of purpose-built rentals.

“This will be a reorganization of existing staff in the spin cycle of housing applications, and thus bouncing back and forth between different divisions of the city government. The Development and Growth Division will allow us to be more nimble in getting projects approved,” Tory said.

To avoid developers from sitting on approved land, Tory said he wants to enact a “use it or lose it” policy that mandates developers to start building on unused land within a certain timeframe or face the consequences of higher taxes and expired zoning approvals.

In an effort to create more co-op, supportive and affordable housing, Tory said he wants to allocate a portion of city-owned land to be developed by non-profit organizations.

“Cooperative housing works and for some reason we back away. We, meaning all of the governments, back away from the use of it in previous years,” Tory said.

“If we can allocate the vacant land that we own as a city and encourage the other governments to do the same together with some of the other incentives we’ve been offering through programs like Open Doors and Housing Now…then I believe we will be able to build more supportive and affordable housing,” he added.

Mayoral candidate Sarah Climenhaga, who ran in the 2018 municipal election, commented on Tory's housing plan on Twitter and said "the will to actually remove housing barriers is what I don't see enough of."

"Hearing about housing is fine. What I care far more about than announcements is seeing housing created. It's important to understand where it is, and where and why it's not," Climenhaga tweeted Tuesday.

There are 31 candidates running in Toronto's mayoral race.

Voters are set to head to the polls on Oct. 24.

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Population Projections for Ontario

Population estimates (1971 to 2020) and projections (2021 to 2043), for Ontario.

By 2043, the total population in Ontario could range between 16,982,300 (Low-growth scenario (LG)) and 21,147,200 (High-growth scenario (HG)). Under the medium-growth scenario (M1), by 2043, the total population in Ontario would be 19,065,300, compared with 14,830,300 in 2021 (+28.6%)

If you would like to find out what these statistics mean to you, or if you are curious to know how much your property is worth today or how much you can afford to buy, please reach out. 

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Buyers Poised to Benefit from Moderating Prices and Reduced Sales Activity

GTA REALTORS® Release July Statistics TORONTO, ONTARIO, August 4, 2022 – There were 4,912 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS® System in July 2022 – down by 47 per cent compared to July 2021. Following the regular seasonal trend, sales were also down compared to June. New listings also declined on a year-over-year basis in July, albeit down by a more moderate four per cent. The expectation is that the trend for new listings will continue to follow the trend for sales, as we move through the second half of 2022 and into 2023.

Market conditions remained much more balanced in July 2022 compared to a year earlier. As buyers continued to benefit from more choice, the annual rate of price growth has moderated. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 12.9 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price was up by 1.2 per cent compared to July 2021 to $1,074,754. Less expensive home types, including condo apartments, experienced stronger rates of price growth as more buyers turned to these segments to help mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs.

“The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) population continues to grow and tight labour market conditions will drive this growth moving forward. Despite more balanced market conditions resulting from rapidly increasing mortgage rates, policymakers must continue to take action to boost housing supply to account for long-term population growth. TRREB has put realistic solutions on the table to address the existing housing affordability challenges. With savings high and the unemployment rate still low, home buyers will eventually account for higher borrowing costs. When they do, we want to have an adequate pipeline of supply in place or market conditions will tighten up again,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

TRREB is also calling on all levels of government to reassess and clarify policies related to mortgage lending and housing development.

“Many GTA households intend on purchasing a home in the future, but there is currently uncertainty about where the market is headed. Policymakers could help allay some of this uncertainty. As higher borrowing costs impact housing markets, TRREB maintains that the OSFI mortgage stress test should be reviewed in the current environment,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

“With significant increases to lending rates in a short period, there has been a shift in consumer sentiment, not market fundamentals. The federal government has a responsibility to not only maintain confidence in the financial system, but to instill confidence in homeowners that they will be able to stay in their homes despite rising mortgage costs. Longer mortgage amortization periods of up to 40 years on renewals and switches should be explored,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

If you would like to find out what these statistics mean to you, or if you are curious to know how much your property is worth today or how much you can afford to buy, please reach out. 

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Higher borrowing costs continued to impact home sales in June 2022

TRREB FORECASTS CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER SUMMER TORONTO, ONTARIO,

July 6, 2022 – Higher borrowing costs continued to impact home sales in June 2022. Sales totalled 6,474 – down by 41 per cent compared to last year’s strong result. The number of transactions was also down compared to May 2022, but this is often the case due to the seasonal nature of the market.

The average selling price, at $1,146,254, remained 5.3 per cent above the June 2021 level, but continued to trend lower on a monthly basis. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 17.9 per cent year-over-year, but also experienced a month-over-month dip compared to May.

Annual price growth was driven more so by less expensive market segments, including townhouses and condominium apartments. “Home sales have been impacted by both the affordability challenge presented by mortgage rate hikes and the psychological effect wherein home buyers who can afford higher borrowing costs have put their decision on hold to see where home prices end up.

Expect current market conditions to remain in place during the slower summer months. Once home prices stabilize, some buyers will re-enter the market despite higher borrowing costs,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger. While the number of transactions was down year-over-year, the number of new listings was little changed over the same period. This has provided for more balance in the market, resulting in a more moderate annual pace of price growth. “Listings will be an important indicator to watch over the next few months. With the unemployment rate low, the majority of households aren’t in a position where they need to sell their home. If would-be sellers decide to take a wait-and-see attitude over the next few months, it’s possible that active listings could trend lower as well. This could cause market conditions to tighten somewhat, providing some support for home prices,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer. “Our region continues to grow because we attract people and businesses from all around the world. All of these people will require a place to live, whether they choose to buy or rent. Despite the shorter-term impact of higher borrowing costs, housing demand will remain strong over the long-term, as long as we can produce homes within which people can live. Policymakers at all levels need to make this their key goal,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Toronto GTA June Rent Report 2022

Q1 2022 Rental Market Report TORONTO, ONTARIO, April 21, 2022

Tight rental market conditions continued in the first quarter of 2022, pushing average rents closer to the pre-pandemic peak. Rental transactions were down year-over-year in the first quarter, largely due to the fact that rental listings dropped by an even greater annual rate. The result was increased competition between renters and double-digit rent increases. Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 10,110 condominium apartment rentals through TRREB’s MLS® System in Q1 2022 – down by 23.2 per cent compared to Q1 2021.

However, rental transactions as a share of listings was up on a year-over-year basis, suggesting that demand remained strong while the supply of available units dipped. “Immigration will be at or near record levels over the next two years. The number of nonpermanent residents, including students, will also increase. Many of them will turn, at least initially, to the rental market.

Investor-owned condominium apartments will be a key source of rental supply in the region. It is clear that rental demand is increasing relative to available units. While the homeownership market often dominates the headlines, policy makers also need to be cognizant about the need for rental housing supply as we move forward,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

The average one-bedroom condominium apartment rent increased by 17.8 per cent to $2,145 in Q1 2022, from $1,820 in Q1 2021. The average two-bedroom rent was $2,867 in Q1 2022 – up by 17.2 per cent year-over-year compared to the average of $2,446 in Q1 2021. For perspective, the pre-pandemic peak in average rents was in Q3 2019, with the average one-bedroom rent at $2,262 and the average two-bedroom rent at $2,941. “Over the past year, we have seen an upward trend in average condominium apartment rents. This rebound in the rental market took hold as population growth accelerated throughout last year. Demand for rental accommodation is expected to remain strong this year and beyond, as job growth continues, immigration and non-permanent migration continues to support housing demand, and higher borrowing costs see some young people put their decision to purchase a home on hold,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

If you would like to find out what these statistics mean to you, or if you are curious to know how much your property is worth today or how much you can afford to buy, please reach out. 

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SECOND HIGHEST FEBRUARY SALES ON RECORD

TORONTO, ONTARIO, March 3, 2022 – February home sales were down compared to the all-time record in 2021, but represented the second-best result for the month of February in history. New listings dropped, but by a marginally lesser annual rate than sales, pointing to a modest move to a slightly more balanced market.

Competition between buyers, however, remained tight enough to support double-digit price growth year-over-year. Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 9,097 sales through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's (TRREB) MLS® System in February 2022, representing a 16.8 per cent decrease in the number of sales compared to February 2021.

The supply of listings for low-rise home types (detached, semi-detached and townhouses) was also down year-over-year, but not by as much as sales. In the condominium apartment segment, particularly in Toronto, new listings were up in comparison to February 2021.

“Demand for ownership housing remains strong throughout the GTA, and while we are marginally off the record pace seen last year, any buyer looking in this market is not likely to feel it with competition remaining the norm. Many households sped up their home purchase and entered into a transaction in 2021, which is one reason the number of sales were forecasted to be lower this year and a trending towards higher borrowing cost will have a moderating effect on home sales.

Substantial immigration levels and a continued lack of supply, however, will have a countering effect to increasing mortgage costs,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 35.9 per cent year-over-year in February. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 27.7 per cent to $1,334,544. The pace of price growth varied by home type and region, but there was relative parity between low-rise and condominium apartment growth rates.

“We have seen a slight balancing in the market so far this year, with sales dipping more than new listings. However, because inventory remains exceptionally low, it will take some time for the pace of price growth to slow. Look for a more moderate pace of price growth in the second half of 2022 as higher borrowing costs result in some households putting their home purchase on hold temporarily as they re-situate themselves in the market,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“We are close to provincial and municipal elections in Ontario. We know that housing affordability will be top of mind. Parties and individuals vying for political office must concentrate on bold and creative policies that will support increased and diverse housing supply to account for the current deficit and future population growth as immigration accelerates. History has shown that tax based policies pointed at foreign buying and speculative activity, which seem to be the political preference, have had very little impact on the market simply because this type of activity accounts for a small share of overall market activity,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

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Lowest Number of Listings in Two Decades

TRREB UNVEILS KEY MARKET DRIVERS FOR 2022 AND JANUARY NUMBERS

TORONTO, ON, February 3, 2022 – The market outlook for 2022 is calling for strong home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) with the average selling price expected to hit a new record. The latest polling conducted for the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) by Ipsos shows detached homes are on the top of the list for buyers while the percentage of first-time home buyers will likely drop this year. Meanwhile, January began the same way December ended with home sales down.

Today, TRREB is releasing its much-anticipated 2022 Market Outlook and 2021 Year in Review report which includes an eagerly awaited forecast for sales and average selling price, the latest consumer polling results on home buying and selling intentions and joint research with the Toronto Region Board of Trade and Maru Public Opinion on post-pandemic back-to-work and employment scenarios.

Delve into the full report, The Post-Pandemic Future: Communities, Housing & Employment and discover highlights and key trends in our digital digest.

Market Outlook Summary

The following points summarize TRREB’s outlook for 2022:

• Total home sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in the GTA will reach 110,000, representing a dip from 2021, but still a strong result in comparison to previous years.

• The average selling price for all home types combined is set to climb to $1,225,000, an approximate increase of 12 per cent when compared to last year.

• In addition to labour market conditions and population growth, the prospect of multiple interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada this year will be an important factor impacting housing markets in 2022. While BoC tightening cycles have historically led to fewer transactions, it is important to remember that home buyers have recently been held to a much higher qualification standard under the OSFI stress test. This could mitigate the impact of higher contract mortgage rates moving forward.

  “Immigration into Canada and the GTA is expected to be at or near record levels in 2022. All of these people will require a place to live. On top of this, job creation in average to above-average income sectors is expected to remain strong, further buoying consumer confidence to make a large-ticket purchase of a home. Unfortunately, the supply of listings will remain constrained, sustaining strong competition between buyers and double-digit growth in selling prices,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

  “While home sales will remain strong historically, there are a few key factors that will see transactions slightly off last year’s record pace. First, higher borrowing costs in 2022 will see some households on the margin of affordability temporarily put their purchase on hold. Second, after above-average per capita home sales in 2021, there will be some give-back in 2022, simply because the pool of ready buyers will be smaller. Finally, the perpetual lack of inventory in the GTA will preclude some willing buyers from getting a deal done – simply put: you can’t buy what’s not available for sale,” added TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Latest Ipsos Consumer Polling Results

The latest consumer polling by Ipsos supports TRREB’s forecast for 2022, including the following points:

• Overall buying intentions for 2022 have dipped relative to previous years. However, the share of those who indicated that they are very likely to buy in 2022 remained in line with the last number of years. The bottom line is that those who are fully committed to a home purchase will do so in 2022, whereas some of those on the fence may put their decision on hold.

• Detached houses remain most popular with intending buyers, especially in suburban areas. In the City of Toronto, a higher share of intending buyers will be focussed on condominium apartments and higher density low-rise home types.

• Overall, the percentage of first-time buyers is likely to drop. The dip will be driven by lower intentions in the suburban 905 area code regions surrounding Toronto. In the ‘416’ area code, first-time buyer activity could actually increase compared to last year. This likely follows the resurgence in condominium apartment demand we experienced in 2021.

• The share of existing homeowners very likely to list their home for sale in 2022 will be down for the GTA, including both Toronto and surrounding suburban regions. Listing intentions are down more so in the ‘905’ area codes. Given sales above the demographic norm over the past year, it makes sense that listing intentions are down. In addition, there still exists a vicious circle where homeowners will decide not to list because they fear they will not be able to find another home that meets their needs.

• Ipsos also looked at home buying intentions for those respondents who had immigrated to Canada. Home buying intentions for 2022 are higher amongst immigrant households and so too is the intended purchase price. This is important given that net population growth in the GTA is driven by immigration.

  January 2022 Home Sales Dip from Last Year’s Record Result

• There were 5,636 sales reported through the TRREB MLS® System in January 2022 – down by 18.2 per cent compared to 6,888 sales in January 2021. While sales were down substantially compared last year’s record result, the January 2022 result was the second best in history for the month. This result is in line with TRREB’s forecast for a strong sales result in 2022, but off the 2021 record.

• New listings were down by a similar annual rate (-15.5 per cent) as sales. Because sales and new listings moved in relative lockstep, active listings at the end of January amounted to 4,140 – down by 44 per cent to the lowest level in more than two decades.

• The continuation of tight market conditions resulted in a 33.3 per cent annual increase in the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark. Similarly, the average selling price was up by 28.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,242,793.

“It is clear that 2022 is starting off the way 2021 ended in terms of the relationship between demand and supply in the GTA housing market. We have provincial and municipal elections this year in Ontario. These are the levels of government whose policies impact real estate development the most. With this in mind, it will be very important for voters to understand exactly what parties and individuals vying for public office propose to do to alleviate the lack of inventory and housing choice in the GTA in the years to come,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Navigating the New Normal

TRREB’s joint research with the Toronto Region Board of Trade and Maru Public Opinion brings together insights from both business executives and workers on what the “new normal” may look like and how real estate needs, employment and work patterns may shift in response.

A summary of results are as follows:

• There is a need for a hybrid of flexible post-COVID working arrangements.

• Downtown core offices may not need to accommodate as many people as before COVID as a result of continued working from home.

• Policies may need to balance the desire to keep working from home while also making use of the office.

• There are many implications for real estate and related infrastructure like transit and economic activity including ancillary spending on retail that will need to be considered in more detail.

  “Employers and workers are navigating what the emerging world of work will look like, including evolving corporate cultures and developing hybrid work patterns,” said Craig Ruttan, Policy Director, Energy, Environment and Land Use at the Toronto Region Board of Trade. “While offices will remain vital meeting places for many companies, their purposes and function will evolve to respond to workers’ priorities.”

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December closes off a record-breaking year for GTA

A record 121,712 sales were reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in 2021 – up 7.7 per cent from the previous 2016 high of 113,040 and up 28 per cent compared to 2020. Record demand last year was up against a constrained supply of listings, with new listings up by 6.2 per cent – a lesser annual rate than sales. The result was extremely tight market conditions and an all-time high average selling price of $1,095,475 – an increase of 17.8 per cent compared to the previous 2020 record of $929,636.

“Despite continuing waves of COVID-19, demand for ownership housing sustained a record pace in 2021. Growth in many sectors of the economy supported job creation, especially in positions supporting above-average earnings. Added to this was the fact that borrowing costs remained extremely low. These factors supported not only a continuation in demand for groundoriented homes, but also a resurgence in the condo segment as well,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

One sales trend that stood out in 2021 compared to 2020 was the resurgence in demand for homes within the City of Toronto. Overall sales in the “416” area code were up by a substantially greater annual rate (+36.8 per cent) compared to sales growth for the surrounding Greater Toronto Area (GTA) suburbs combined (+23.6 per cent). The marked recovery in the condominium apartment segment was a key driver of this trend.

“Tight market conditions prevailed throughout the GTA and broader Greater Golden Horseshoe in 2021, with a lack of inventory noted across all home types. The result was intense competition between buyers, pushing selling prices up by double digits year-over-year. Looking forward, the only sustainable way to moderate price growth will be to bring on more supply. History has shown that demand-side policies, such as additional taxation on principal residences, foreign buyers, and small-scale investors, have not been sustainable long-term solutions to housing affordability or supply constraints,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

In December, GTA REALTORS® reported 6,031 sales – a strong result historically, but still down by more than 1,000 transactions (-15.7 per cent) compared to the record of 7,154 set in December 2020. Over the same period, new listings were down by 11.9 per cent to 5,174. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 31.1 per cent yearover-year in December. The average selling price was up by 24.2 per cent annually to $1,157,849.

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November sets record home sales in spite of low inventory

TORONTO, ONTARIO, December 3, 2021 – Home sales reached a new record for the month of November, and the average selling price also reached a new all-time high. New listings were down substantially compared to last year for all market segments – further highlighting the inherent supply issue across all home types in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

GTA REALTORS® reported 9,017 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2021 – 3.3 per cent above the November 2020 result, setting a new record. In contrast, new listings were down by 13.2 per cent year-over-year, with double-digit declines for low-rise home types and condominium apartments.

“Governments at all levels must take coordinated action to increase supply in the immediate term to begin addressing the supply challenges of today, and to work towards satisfying growing demand in the future. The GTA remains the primary destination for new immigrants and is at the centre of the Canadian economy. For far too long, governments have focused on short-term bandaid policies to artificially suppress demand. Current market activity highlights decisively that these policies do not work, and unless governments work together to cut red tape, streamline the approval processes, and incentivize mid- density housing, ongoing housing affordability challenges will escalate. On this point, we commend the City of Toronto for moving forward with initiatives to facilitate the creation of more mid-density home types, including their current consultations on options to encourage more multiplex development acrossthe city,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark was up by 28.3 per cent year-over-year in November 2021. The average selling price for all home types combined was $1,163,323 – up by 21.7 per cent compared to November 2020.

“A key difference this year compared to last year, is how the condo segment continues to tighten and experience an acceleration in price growth, particularly in suburban areas. This speaks to the broadening of economic recovery, with first-time buyers moving back into the market in a big way this year. The condo and townhouse segments, with lower price points on average, will remain popular as population growth picks up over the next two years,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“As population and housing demand continues to grow in the GTA, it will be important to support the fabric of our region’s neighbourhoods. This can be partially accomplished by bringing on line a greater diversity of housing choices. However, in addition, local businesses also need support, and TRREB was encouraged to see the new small business property tax class approved by the City of Toronto. This will be an important tool for post-pandemic recovery,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

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Supply Squeeze & Condo Price Appreciation

GTA REALTORS® Release October 2021 Stats

Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) reached the second-highest level on record for the month of October. However, the inventory of homes for sale did not keep up with demand. The number of new listings was down by approximately one-third compared to October 2020. Market conditions tightened across all major home types compared to last year, and the annual rate of average price growth remained in the double digits, including for the resurgent condominium apartment segment.

“The only sustainable way to address housing affordability in the GTA is to deal with the persistent mismatch between demand and supply. Demand isn’t going away. And that’s why all three levels of government need to focus on supply. The federal government has stated that collaboration with provinces and municipalities is required. This collaboration could be spearheaded, at least in part, with housing-related incentives tied to federal infrastructure investment,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

GTA REALTORS® reported 9,783 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in October 2021 – down by 6.9 per cent compared to the October 2020 record of 10,503. A strong double-digit increase in condominium apartment sales mitigated annual declines in low-rise home sales. The number of new listings entered into the system was down by almost a third over the same period, with consistent declines across all major home types.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 24.2 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price for all homes combined rose by 19.3 per cent year-over-year to $1,155,345. The low-rise market continued to drive price growth in October, but the annual price growth for condominium apartments was in the double digits as well.

“The tight market conditions across all market segments and areas of the GTA is testament to the broadening scope of economic recovery in the region and household confidence that this recovery will continue. A key part of future economic development in the GTA will be the ability to provide adequate ownership and rental housing supply so that people can continue to move to the region to live, work and spend money in the local economy,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

TRREB Releases Q3 2021 Condo Market Statistics

The condominium apartment market has experienced strong growth in 2021 and this continued in the third quarter. Sales in Q3 were up substantially compared to the same period last year. In addition, the condo inventory that built up during the initial phases of COVID has been more than absorbed with listings down significantly compared to last year. The result has been the resumption of seller's market conditions, and above-inflation price increases relative to 2020.

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 7,810 condominium apartment sales through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's (TRREB) MLS® System in Q3 2021. This result was up by 10.6 per cent compared to Q3 2020. Over the same period, new listings were down by 31 per cent. This means that market conditions tightened markedly over the last year, increasing competition between buyers.

"The condo market has seen a dramatic resurgence compared to a year ago. In 2020, first-time buyers sat on the sidelines due to economic uncertainty. This year, however, improving economic prospects have seen many of these buyers accelerate their search for a property. This trend will only continue as population growth resumes next year, and limited changes to supply are expected," said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

The average selling price for Q3 2021 condominium apartment sales was $689,831 - up 8.9 per cent compared to Q3 2020.

"The condo market is catching up to the low-rise market segments in terms of market conditions. If demand continues to increase relative to supply, which is a distinct possibility assuming an acceleration in population growth over the next year, the annual rate of price growth could increase as we move into 2022," said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

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Record sales despite a near 50% drop in available listings

GTA REALTORS® Release September 2021 Stats

September marked the transition from the slower summer market to the busier fall market in the in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Every year, we generally see an uptick in sales, average selling price and listings after Labour Day, and September 2021 was no different. Sales increased relative to August and were also at the third-highest mark on record for the month of September. The average selling price was up both month-over-month and year-over-year.

GTA REALTORS® reported 9,046 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in September 2021 – up in line with the regular seasonal trend from August. Compared to last year, market conditions tightened noticeably, with sales representing a substantially higher share of listings, and a significantly lower number of new listings across the board. Resurgence in the condo market was a factor in the higher share of listings sold. The total number of sales was down 18 per cent from 2020’s record September result, in large part due to the lower number of new listings, which were down 34 per cent from the same time last year.

“Demand has remained incredibly robust throughout September with many qualified buyers who would buy a home tomorrow provided they could find a suitable property. With new listings in September down by one third compared to last year, purchasing a home for many is easier said than done. The lack of housing supply and choice has reached a critical juncture. Bandaid policies to artificially suppress demand have not been effective. This is not an issue that can be solved by one level of government alone. There needs to be collaboration federally, provincially, and locally on a solution,” said Kevin Crigger, TRREB President.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 19.1 per cent year-over-year in September 2021. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 18.3 per cent year-over-year to $1,136,280. “Price growth in September continued to be driven by the low-rise market segments, including detached and semidetached houses and townhouses. However, competition between buyers for condo apartments has picked up markedly over the past year, which has led to an acceleration in price growth over the past few months as first-time buyers reentered the ownership market. Look for this trend to continue,” said Jason Mercer, TRREB Chief Market Analyst.

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Record sales despite record inventory crunch and rising prices

TRREB is reporting the third-best sales result on record for the month of August. While the market has taken its regular summer breather, it is clear that the demand for ownership housing remains strong. At the same time, the supply of listings is down. The result has been tighter market conditions and sustained competition between buyers, resulting in double-digit annual increases in selling prices.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,596 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in August 2021 – down by 19.9 per cent compared to the August 2020 record of 10,738. The condominium apartment market segment bucked the overall sales trend, with year-over-year growth in sales, continuing a marked resurgence in 2021. The number of new listings entered into the System was down year-over-year by 43 per cent.

“The fact that new listings were at the lowest level for the past decade is alarming. It is clear that the supply of homes is not keeping pace with demand, and this situation will become worse once immigration into Canada resumes. The federal parties vying for office in the upcoming federal election have all made housing supply and affordability a focal point. Working with provincial and municipal levels of government on solving supply-related issues is much more important to affordability than interfering with consumer choice during the home buying and selling offer process or revisiting demand-side policies that will at best have a short-term impact on market conditions,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

The August 2021 MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 17.4 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price for all homes combined was up by 12.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,070,911. The strongest annual rates of price growth are still being experienced for low-rise home types. However, average condominium apartment price growth is now well-above inflation as well. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price continued to trend upward in August.

“Sales have accounted for a much higher share of new listings this year compared to last, and the story was no different in August. There has been no relief on the supply side for home buyers, in fact, competition between these buyers have increased. As we move toward 2022, expect market conditions to become tighter as population growth in the GTA starts to trend back to pre-COVID levels,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

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Strong Demand For Home Ownership Continues in July

With almost 9,400 sales reported in July 2021, demand for ownership housing remained well-above average for the time of year despite being below the record July result set a year earlier. Market conditions actually tightened relative to July 2020, with sales accounting for a greater share of new listings compared to last year. The sellers’ market conditions sustained a double-digit annual rate of price growth.

“Demand for ownership housing has remained strong despite a pandemic-related lull in population growth. Of specific note is the condominium apartment market, which has seen a marked turn-around in 2021 with sales up compared to last year. First-time buyers, many of whom were slower to benefit from the initial recovery phase, remain very active in the market place,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 9,390 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in July 2021 – down by 14.9 per cent compared to July 2020 result of 11,033. On a seasonally adjusted basis, July sales were down by two per cent compared to June.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 18.1 per cent compared to July 2020. The average price for all home types combined was $1,062,256 – up 12.6 per cent compared to July 2020. The detached market segment led the way in terms of price growth, driven by sales in the suburban regions surrounding Toronto. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average price was up by 0.9 per cent compared to June.

“The annual rate of price growth has moderated since the early spring, but has remained in the double digits. This means that many households are still competing very hard to reach a deal on a home. This strong upward pressure on home prices will be sustained in the absence of more supply, especially as we see a resurgence in population growth moving into 2022,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

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June 2021 – Home Prices Are Edging Up

GTA REALTORS® Release June 2021 Stats

June home sales were up compared to last year, but remained below the March 2021 peak and were lower than the number of transactions reported for May 2021, consistent with the regular seasonal trend. The average selling price in June increased by double digits compared to last year as well, but the annual rate of increase moderated compared to the previous three months.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 11,106 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in June 2021 – up by 28.5 per cent compared to June 2020. Looking at the GTA as a whole, year-over-year sales growth was strongest in the condominium apartment segment, both in the City of Toronto and some of the surrounding suburbs. On a monthover-month basis, both actual and seasonally adjusted sales continued to trend lower in June.

“We have seen market activity transition from a record pace to a robust pace over the last three months. While this could provide some relief for home buyers in the near term, a resumption of population growth based on immigration is only months away. While the primary focus of policymakers has been artificially curbing demand, the only longterm solution to affordability is increasing supply to accommodate perpetual housing needs in a growing region,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

In all major market segments, year-over-year growth in sales well outpaced growth in new listings over the same period, pointing to the continuation of tight market conditions characterized by competition between buyers and strong price growth. On a month-over-month basis, both actual and seasonally adjusted average prices edged lower in June.

The June 2021 MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark was up by 19.9 per cent year over year. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 17 per cent over the same time period to $1,089,536. While price growth continued to be driven by the low-rise segments of the market, it is important to note that the average condominium apartment price was up by more than eight per cent compared to June 2020, well outstripping inflation.

See a breakdown of housing transactions across the GTHA

Scan market stats for June and how they compared to last year and previous months - Residential, Commercial, Condo Sales and Rental

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STRONG MAY GTA HOME SALES REMAIN BELOW MARCH PEAK

TORONTO, ONTARIO, June 3, 2021 – Residential transactions reported through TRREB’s MLS® System remained high in May 2021, but fell short of the 2016 record and were below this year’s March peak. Despite a slight ebb in sales over the last two months, market conditions remained tight enough to push the average selling price to an all-time record in May.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 11,951 sales in May 2021 – more than double the result from May 2020, the second full month of the pandemic. May 2021 sales were below the May 2016 record of 12,789 but remained well above the average May sales of 10,336 for the 2010 through 2019 period. Often, May is the strongest sales month in any given year; however, 2021 results bucked this trend, with May sales below the 15,646 deals reported in March.

“There has been strong demand for ownership housing in all parts of the GTA for both ground-oriented home types and condominium apartments. This was fueled by confidence in economic recovery and low borrowing costs. However, in the absence of a normal pace of population growth, we saw a pullback in sales over the past two months relative to the March peak,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by close to 19 per cent year-over-year in May 2021. The average selling price across all home types was up by 28.4 per cent year-over-year, reaching a record $1,108,453. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average price increased by 1.1 per cent between April and May 2021.

“While sales have trended off the March 2021 peak, so too have new listings. This means that people actively looking to purchase a home continue to face a lot of competition from other buyers, which results in very strong upward pressure on selling prices. This competition is becoming more widespread with tighter market conditions in the condominium apartment segment as well,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“The housing supply shortage in southern Ontario has been well documented. Policymakers at all levels have acknowledged that supply is an issue. It is important to understand that dealing with this issue will be important not only for ensuring long-term housing affordability, but also the economic competitiveness of the Greater Golden Horseshoe. People and businesses are more likely to locate in regions that have an ample supply of affordable homeownership and rental options,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

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THE PACE OF GTA HOME SALES SLOWS IN APRIL

GTA REALTORS® RELEASE APRIL 2021 STATS

Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) set a new record for April and amounted to more than quadruple that from April 2020 – the first full month of the pandemic. Bucking the regular seasonal trend, April 2021 sales actually declined month-over-month. A similar trend was noted for the number of new listings reported.

GTA REALTORS® reported 13,663 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in April 2021 – a 12.7 per cent decrease compared to March 2021, but more than quadruple the number of sales reported in April 2020, when the economic impact of COVID-19 was arguably the worst. Compared to the ten-year sales average of 10,000 for the April 2010 to April 2019 period, the April 2021 sales result was up by 36.6 per cent.

New listings followed a similar track – down by 8.4 per cent compared to March 2021, but more than triple the number of new listings reported in April 2020. Compared to the ten-year new listings average for the April 2010 to April 2019 period, the April 2021 new listings count was up by 18.3 per cent.

“While sales remained very strong last month, many REALTORS® noted a marked slowing in both the number of transactions and the number of new listings. It makes sense that we had a pullback in market activity compared to March. We’ve experienced a torrid pace of home sales since the summer of 2020 while seeing little in the way of population growth. We may be starting to exhaust the pool of potential buyers within the existing GTA population. Over the long term, sustained growth in sales requires sustained growth in population,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 17.8 per cent year-over-year. The Composite benchmark also increased on a monthly basis, but the pace of monthly growth decelerated. The average selling price of $1,090,992 was up by 33 per cent compared to April 2020, but was basically flat relative to March 2021. This was in contrast to most years in the past when the average selling price increased between March and April.

“Despite a modest slowing in market activity in April compared to March, selling prices for all major home types remained very high. Low borrowing costs during COVID-19 clearly had an impact on the demand for and price of ownership housing. While the pace of price growth could moderate in the coming months, home prices will likely continue on the upward trend. Renewed population growth over the next year coupled with a persistent lack of new inventory will underpin home price appreciation,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“All levels of government – most recently the federal Minister of Finance – have acknowledged that long- term housing affordability in Canada, including the GTA, will be predicated on the ability to bring more supply on line. With the federal, provincial, and municipal governments on the same page, we need to see a coordinated and collaborative effort to streamline the development approvals process to pave the way for more ownership and rental housing,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Q1 2021 GTA CONDO SALES RISE SUBSTANTIALLY

TORONTO, ONTARIO, April 22, 2021 – Year-over-year growth in first quarter 2021 condominium apartment sales well outstripped growth in listings over the same period in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). With market conditions tightening, average condo prices for Q1 2021 were above the averages for Q1 2020 for the regions surrounding the City of Toronto. The average condo selling price in Toronto remained below last year’s level.

First quarter 2021 condominium apartment sales reported by GTA REALTORS® totalled 9,398 – up 79.8 per cent compared to 5,226 in Q1 2020. The number of new listings in Q1 2021 amounted to 11,373 – a 42.8 per cent increase over Q1 2020. Active listings totalled 2,811 at the end of Q1, an increase of 23.6 per cent compared to the end of Q1 2020.

“While the condo market was slower to recover compared to low-rise market segments, many Realtors have noted a marked increase in condo interest since the beginning of 2021. This interest will likely continue to increase as the economy improves and vaccine take-up accelerates, resulting in more confidence for first-time buyers,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel.

The overall GTA average condominium apartment selling price was down by 1.4 per cent year over year in Q1 2021 to $645,219. The decline in the overall GTA average selling price was entirely driven by a 4.6 per cent decline in the average selling price in Toronto to $675,844 over the same period.

“Consumer polling conducted by Ipsos in the late fall last year suggested that there was a substantial number of people intending on buying their first home in 2021. Whether we’re talking about Toronto or the surrounding suburbs, the condominium apartment is the logical entry point into the ownership market for many households,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

RECORD Q1 CONDO RENTALS IN 2021

TORONTO, ONTARIO, April 22, 2021 – In the first quarter of 2021, average condominium apartment rents were down on a year-over-year basis, continuing to reflect a supply imbalance in favour of renters. However, year-over-year growth in rental transactions outstripped growth in the number of units listed over the same period, suggesting that rental market conditions are starting to tighten in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) once again.

GTA REALTORS® reported 13,168 condominium apartment rentals through TRREB’s MLS® System during the first quarter of this year. This represented an increase of 81.6 per cent compared to 7,251 rentals in Q1 2020. The number of condominium apartments listed for rent during Q1 2021 was up by 78.8 per cent compared to Q1 2020.

“The number of condo apartment rentals reported in the first quarter represented a new record for the first three months of the year. This suggests we are accounting for pent-up rental demand from 2020. Strong rental demand is also an indicator of broader economic recovery with people willing to sign rental agreements because they are confident in their future job and income prospects,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel.

The average one-bedroom condominium apartment rent was down by 16.8 per cent year-over- year in Q1 2021 to $1,820 compared to $2,187 in Q1 2020. The average two-bedroom condominium apartment rent was down by 13 per cent over the same time period to $2,447 compared to $2,812.

“Average rents continued to be down on a year-over-year basis, as the supply and therefore choice for renters remained very high from a historic perspective. However, if growth in rental transactions continues to outstrip growth in listings, market conditions will become tighter as we move through 2021 and even more so in 2022 as immigration and non-permanent migration rebound,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

If you would like to find out what these statistics mean to you, or if you are curious to know how much your property is worth today or how much you can afford to buy, please reach out. 

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